Let it be said I let all corners of the country have their say. Today’s round-up features critics groups from east and west, from big cities and sparsely populated states, none of which are likely to significantly affect the Oscars, but which I, as a man of the people, want to give the floor to. We’ve got seven groups today, courtesy of the doughty chroniclers at AwardsWatch:
- Denver Film Critics Society (DFCS)
- Hawaii Film Critics Society (HIFCS)
- Houston Film Critics Society (HFCS)
- North Dakota Film Society (NDFS)
- Philadelphia Film Critics Circle (PFCC)
- San Francisco Bay Area Film Critics Circle (SFFCC)
- St. Louis Film Critics Association (SLFCA)
Other nominees and runners-up can be found, when applicable, via the links above.
Best Picture:
- DFCS: The Trial of the Chicago 7
- HIFCS: The Trial of the Chicago 7
- HFCS: Nomadland
- NDFS: Nomadland
- PFCC: Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
- SFFCC: Nomadland
- SLFCA: Nomadland
Nomadland continues its reign as the critical darling of the season. It’s still too early to say what the more populist/industry choice will be, but Trial might well be it. (It’s good enough and available enough to be.) Philly threw us a curveball, which will probably get an Oscar nomination, but I highly doubt it’ll win.
Best Director:
- DFCS: Chloe Zhao, Nomadland
- HIFCS: Spike Lee, Da 5 Bloods
- HFCS: Chloe Zhao, Nomadland
- NDFS: Chloe Zhao, Nomadland
- PFCC: Chloe Zhao, Nomadland
- SFFCC: Chloe Zhao, Nomadland
- SLFCA: Chloe Zhao, Nomadland
Spike again prevents Zhao from getting a clean sweep; it’s likewise early to say if she’s going to sweep the big awards, but unless Lee has a late surge and a “career win” narrative develops, I’m thinking she’ll win the Oscar. Some categories this year are very open, but this one doesn’t seem to be.
Best Actor:
- DFCS: Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
- HIFCS: Delroy Lindo, Da 5 Bloods
- HFCS: Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal
- NDFS: Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal
- PFCC: Delroy Lindo, Da 5 Bloods
- SFFCC: Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
- SLFCA: Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
A much more open category, though my hunch is the sentimental factor will carry Boseman through to win; I still haven’t seen Bloods or Metal, but I feel like this is Boseman’s Oscar to lose, and even if he might not be my choice, the performance is solid enough that I won’t argue with it.
Best Actress:
- DFCS: Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman
- HIFCS: Frances McDormand, Nomadland
- HFCS: Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman
- NDFS: Frances McDormand, Nomadland
- PFCC: Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
- SFFCC: Frances McDormand, Nomadland
- SLFCA: Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman
Three for Mulligan, three for McDormand, one for Davis. Mulligan and Davis are both great, but I would certainly take Mulligan myself (it doesn’t hurt that Davis could be argued as Supporting – Boseman is definitely the lead of that film). But I haven’t seen Nomadland yet.
Best Supporting Actor:
- DFCS: Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7
- HIFCS: Paul Raci, Sound of Metal
- HFCS: Leslie Odom Jr., One Night in Miami
- NDFS: Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7
- PFCC: Chadwick Boseman, Da 5 Bloods
- SFFCC: Paul Raci, Sound of Metal
- SLFCA: Paul Raci, Sound of Metal
Another somewhat open category. Raci continues to lead, but by a smaller margin; Cohen (whom I consider a lead) and Odom (who’s good, but I think Aldis Hodge was even better) are definitely contenders. And then there’s Boseman, who could definitely get the double nomination, but I think Actor is a much safer bet for him.
Best Supporting Actress:
- DFCS: Ellen Burstyn, Pieces of a Woman
- HIFCS: Olivia Cooke, Sound of Metal
- HFCS: Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
- NDFS: Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
- PFCC: Amanda Seyfried, Mank
- SFFCC: Youn Yuh-jung, Minari
- SLFCA: Youn Yuh-jung, Minari
Youn and Bakalova are definitely the heavy-hitters this year, although Seyfried shouldn’t be counted out; Cooke might get a boost from the fact that her film is going to have a lot of eyes on it. A veteran nod for Burstyn isn’t impossible, but a nomination would probably be the most she would get.
Best Original/Adapted Screenplay:
- DFCS: The Trial of the Chicago 7/First Cow
- HIFCS: The Trial of the Chicago 7/Nomadland
- HFCS: Promising Young Woman
- NDFS: Promising Young Woman
- PFCC: First Cow
- SFFCC: Minari/First Cow
- SLFCA: Promising Young Woman/I’m Thinking of Ending Things
Original seems to be a two-horse race between Trial (a great script) and Young Woman (a very uneven script). Adapted is probably Nomadland‘s to lose, with First Cow being a likely nominee and Ending Things a near-certain nominee (though, sadly, not a likely win).
Best Cinematography:
- HIFCS: Tenet
- HFCS: Nomadland
- NDFS: Nomadland
- PFCC: Nomadland
- SFFCC: First Cow
- SLFCA: Nomadland
No wins this time around for Mank, which doesn’t bode incredibly well for it. Also, Nomadland is getting a limited release in late January and early February in IMAX, and I really hope to see it that way. (Also also, I’m not holding my breath, but it’d be great if Christopher Blauvelt (First Cow) finally got an Oscar nomination; he also shot Emma., which looked lovely.)
Best Editing:
- HIFCS: The Trial of the Chicago 7
- NDFS: Nomadland
- SFFCC: Nomadland
- SLFCA: Nomadland
Again, I thought I’d read that Nomadland would be ineligible for this award for some arcane reason, but it’s right there (with Chloe Zhao listed as editor) on Searchlight’s FYC page, so I’m guessing there’s no issue. But the editing in Trial is very impressive and would be a worthy winner in its own right.
Best Production Design:
- HIFCS: Mank
- NDFS: Mank
- PFCC: First Cow
- SLFCA: Mank
Mank continues to be the film to beat here; I don’t fully agree with that, but I don’t mind too much. First Cow is an interesting little curveball choice by Philadelphia; I’d have figured it was mostly set out of doors, given Kelly Reichardt’s normal style.
Best Costume Design:
- HIFCS: Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Only Hawaii saw fit to include a Costume category, but they made a fairly good choice.
Best Makeup:
- HIFCS: Mank
Hawaii was also the only one to include a Makeup category, and it’s a little surprising they went with Mank (which didn’t have especially noteworthy makeup, at least not to me) instead of Ma Rainey, which had especially impressive work on Viola Davis.
On a side note, it’s weird that more critics’ groups don’t do a full slate of tech awards. You’d think, since they’re supposed to take note of all the elements of a film (which the more casual viewer would simply absorb as a matter of course), they would be more likely to recognize superior technical achievements. But apparently not.
Best Score:
- DFCS: Soul
- HIFCS: Mank
- HFCS: Soul
- NDFS: Mank
- PFCC: Soul
- SFFCC: Soul
- SLFCA: Soul
Reznor and Ross are winning the Oscar, the question is just for which film. (And let’s be honest, it’s probably going to be for Soul.)
Best Song:
- DFCS: “Speak Now,” One Night in Miami
- HIFCS: “Speak Now,” One Night in Miami
- HFCS: “Speak Now,” One Night in Miami
- NDFS: “Wuhan Flu,” Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
“Speak Now” is a good song and it works well in the film, coming right on top of “A Change is Gonna Come.” So if it wins the Oscar, which is looking fairly likely, I’ll be fine with it.
I haven’t heard “Wuhan Flu” yet, and I’m not going to until I watch the movie. I have a feeling that needs to be heard in context.
Best Sound:
- HIFCS: Sound of Metal
- HFCS: Sound of Metal*
*Houston doesn’t have a dedicated Sound category, but they gave Sound of Metal an Outstanding Cinematic Achievement award for its sound design.
I have to imagine this will at least be up for the Oscar. In fact, aside from Tenet, I’m not sure what will be, let alone what else might win.
Best Visual Effects:
- DFCS: Tenet
- HIFCS: Tenet
- HFCS: Tenet
- SLFCA: Tenet
Gee, you think a Christopher Nolan film might win a VFX Oscar? I didn’t even think the effects were incredibly brilliant (Possessor all the way, baby), but the only competition right now would seem to be The Invisible Man. But until we get a shortlist, we don’t really know what’ll happen.
Best Foreign Language Film:
- DFCS: Minari
- HIFCS: The Life Ahead
- HFCS: A Sun
- NDFS: And Then We Danced
- PFCC: Jumbo
- SFFCC: Another Round
- SLFCA: Another Round
Seven groups, six different films, one of which won’t be nominated for the Oscar because it’s an American film, set in America, about Korean-speaking characters. So I’ll just say Another Round takes it until the Academy leaves it off the shortlist for some damned reason.
Also, Jumbo sounds weird as hell. It’s a Belgian film about a girl who falls in love with a theme park ride. But it wasn’t submitted, so I can’t root for it to be nominated.
Best Animated Film:
- DFCS: Soul
- HIFCS: Lupin III: The First
- HFCS: Soul
- NDFS: Soul
- PFCC: Soul
- SFFCC: Soul
- SLFCA: Soul
LOL @ Hawaii going rogue with an anime film. Granted, it’s apparently pretty good, but still, that amuses me greatly. It is eligible for an Oscar, I think, but I don’t know that it’ll even get nominated.
Best Documentary:
- DFCS: Boys State
- HIFCS: Beastie Boys Story
- HFCS: My Octopus Teacher
- NDFS: All In: The Fight for Democracy
- PFCC: Time
- SFFCC: Collective
- SLFCA: Collective
Not even gonna try predicting this category until we get a shortlist. This is the biggest category for leaving off the films you figure are locks. Jerks.
Anyhoo, that’s this round of awards groups. We’ve got some major groups announcing in the next week or so, so stay tuned for that. I’ll do another one of these posts once there are enough regional groups to profile (Kansas City is announcing on the 24th!)
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