The BAFTAs announced today. No major upsets (one mild surprise, though), but this awards race is getting interesting for reasons I’ll delve into…
So I got up way too damn early to watch the Oscar nominations announcement, but was rewarded for my sacrifice with a few nice surprises and few, if any, unpleasant ones.
Here’s what I predicted would be nominated, along with my rationale for each. As a reminder, my batting average the last couple of years was around 75%.
And the nominees are…
Before the BAFTA nominations were announced, I openly expressed my desire that they would shake up the race. And while they didn’t totally throw it into chaos, they most certainly made it more interesting, in the process providing me with what might be my favorite single nomination of the season to date.
Well, that didn’t go so well (for me).
And, if you ask me, it didn’t go that well in any case. But how not-well I’ll explain by degrees…
Predicting this year’s Globes is tricky. On the one hand, they love to help a narrative along. On the other hand, this year has several competing narratives. On the other other hand, thanks to some key omissions (namely in Director and Screenplay), they’re making it very difficult to predict which narrative, if any, they’re going to advance. So take these predictions with a grain of salt, and not just because I’m a dude on his couch who won’t even see the ceremony live because he doesn’t have cable.
The Producers Guild of America announced their award nominees today. They’re a pretty major Best Picture barometer, as the last five years demonstrates:
- 2012: They matched the Oscar nominees 8/9, missing Amour (which most likely wasn’t PGA eligible).
- 2013: They matched the Oscar nominees 8/9, missing Philomena.
- 2014: They matched the Oscar nominees 7/8, missing Selma.
- 2015: They matched the Oscar nominees 7/8, missing Room.
- 2016: They matched the Oscar nominees 9/9.
That’s a pretty impressive rate of prediction. And of the four films they’ve missed, three were Globe nominees for Best Picture – Drama, which makes my job all the easier.
So let’s see what they’ve got for us this year.