I’m going to start by saying that I won’t get as in-depth, nuts-and-boltsy with this post as I did with my predicting-what-will-be-nominated post. Some of that may be due to personal fatigue. But a lot of it is due to what this season has become – a melange of yawn-inducing locks, conflicting precedents, and confounding dead heats. At this point, I could write a whole article arguing with myself over what will win Best Picture. And there are several categories which could end up being swing categories, changing the course of the big night when it’s far too late for me to cover my analytical ass.
This is the kind of year where you could call most of the categories with a reasonable degree of confidence. That’s if you had an abiding trust in the stats and the Academy’s capacity to behave themselves. I don’t, and this year I’m going to try not to take too much for granted. It may be for naught, but isn’t everything, if you take a broad enough view?
We’ll start with the big ‘un.