If you want the gravy…

…You've got to get the biscuits!


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Reviewing the 90th Academy Awards

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Just gonna start by saying – I’m really happy with how this year turned out. Even though there were few outright surprises (only a couple, honestly), it still felt good to see things play out the way they did. And that all starts with…

Best Picture: The Shape of Water

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Predicting the 90th Academy Awards

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What a time to be alive, when such a film could not only get into the Oscar race, but do so with a vengeance.

I’m going to start by saying that I won’t get as in-depth, nuts-and-boltsy with this post as I did with my predicting-what-will-be-nominated post. Some of that may be due to personal fatigue. But a lot of it is due to what this season has become – a melange of yawn-inducing locks, conflicting precedents, and confounding dead heats. At this point, I could write a whole article arguing with myself over what will win Best Picture. And there are several categories which could end up being swing categories, changing the course of the big night when it’s far too late for me to cover my analytical ass.

This is the kind of year where you could call most of the categories with a reasonable degree of confidence. That’s if you had an abiding trust in the stats and the Academy’s capacity to behave themselves. I don’t, and this year I’m going to try not to take too much for granted. It may be for naught, but isn’t everything, if you take a broad enough view?

We’ll start with the big ‘un.

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The 90th Academy Awards Nominations

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Oh, don’t look so sour. You had a pretty damn good morning.

So I got up way too damn early to watch the Oscar nominations announcement, but was rewarded for my sacrifice with a few nice surprises and few, if any, unpleasant ones.

Here’s what I predicted would be nominated, along with my rationale for each. As a reminder, my batting average the last couple of years was around 75%.

And the nominees are…

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Predicting the 90th Academy Awards Nominations

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Greta Gerwig will almost certainly become the first woman to write and direct an Oscar nominee for Best Picture.

This is always a tricky post to write, but this year more than most. Between categories which are overstuffed, categories where the precursors can’t make up their damn minds, and sure-thing films that aren’t so sure anymore, I’m flying fairly blind here. Which is just fine, I’d rather do that than be bored.

While I’d love to go wild and predict left-field nominations for films I loved (The Killing of a Sacred Deer, baby), I’m going to try and take this relatively seriously. I have no idea why. But the last couple of years I predicted the nominees with roughly 75% accuracy, and I wouldn’t mind keeping that streak alive.

So buckle in and let’s get started, shall we?

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HAMLET (1948) Review – ***½

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“This is the tragedy of a man who could not make up his mind.” (Source)

The quintessential Shakespearean actor of his time, playing the quintessential Shakespearean character in the quintessential Shakespearean play—directing it as well, and adapting/heavily cutting the text? It’s hard to imagine a classier enterprise, and the Academy agreed, giving the film Best Picture and Olivier Best Actor, the only Shakespearean film and performance to be so honored.

But how does it hold up 70 years after the fact?

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Wrapping Up the 89th Academy Awards

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I really wish I hadn’t been buried in my phone.

I was too busy grumbling about a film I had never come to love, a film I had never been able to respect, even as a hypothetical winner. Too busy to notice at first the confusion in the background.

And then came the revelation. I thought it was a joke. A lot of you probably did as well. But then the La La Land team gracefully ceded the stage to the stunned and triumphant Moonlight crowd, and that perennial maverick Warren Beatty found himself at the center of the first time in Oscar history (that I know of) that the wrong name was called.

And how do I feel about it?

Read on.

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Predicting the 89th Academy Awards

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The biggest possible screen for the likeliest winner…but would that make it better? (Source)

We’re getting down to the wire here, people.

I’ve watched every Picture, Director, acting, and writing nominee, and most of the tech nominees, and pored over a season’s worth of winners and nominees, to bring you a thorough overview of the nominations and a carefully considered prediction of the winners in each category.

Get comfortable, kids. We’ve got a lot of territory to cover.

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