If you want the gravy…

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Predicting the 90th Academy Awards Nominations

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Greta Gerwig will almost certainly become the first woman to write and direct an Oscar nominee for Best Picture.

This is always a tricky post to write, but this year more than most. Between categories which are overstuffed, categories where the precursors can’t make up their damn minds, and sure-thing films that aren’t so sure anymore, I’m flying fairly blind here. Which is just fine, I’d rather do that than be bored.

While I’d love to go wild and predict left-field nominations for films I loved (The Killing of a Sacred Deer, baby), I’m going to try and take this relatively seriously. I have no idea why. But the last couple of years I predicted the nominees with roughly 75% accuracy, and I wouldn’t mind keeping that streak alive.

So buckle in and let’s get started, shall we?

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Directors Guild Awards Nominations: 2017

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From TV sketch comedian to award-nominated film director in two years. (Source)

The DGA announced their nominees today. And as much as I like the BAFTAs and the Globes, the DGA is much more useful for predicting what the Academy will do, because the people who pick the Oscar nominees are all DGA members (at least, I’d imagine so).

And I have to say, their choices don’t make predicting the Oscars (nominees or winners) much easier. Which is just fine by me.

And the nominees are…

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BAFTA Nominations: 2017

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A not wholly unexpected BAFTA darling. (Source)

Before the BAFTA nominations were announced, I openly expressed my desire that they would shake up the race. And while they didn’t totally throw it into chaos, they most certainly made it more interesting, in the process providing me with what might be my favorite single nomination of the season to date.

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Predicting the 75th Golden Globes

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Two nominations for a fairly impressive directorial debut in one of the biggest years ever for directorial debuts. But will it win either?

Predicting this year’s Globes is tricky. On the one hand, they love to help a narrative along. On the other hand, this year has several competing narratives. On the other other hand, thanks to some key omissions (namely in Director and Screenplay), they’re making it very difficult to predict which narrative, if any, they’re going to advance. So take these predictions with a grain of salt, and not just because I’m a dude on his couch who won’t even see the ceremony live because he doesn’t have cable.

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Producers Guild Awards Nominees: 2017

The Producers Guild of America announced their award nominees today. They’re a pretty major Best Picture barometer, as the last five years demonstrates:

  • 2012: They matched the Oscar nominees 8/9, missing Amour (which most likely wasn’t PGA eligible).
  • 2013: They matched the Oscar nominees 8/9, missing Philomena.
  • 2014: They matched the Oscar nominees 7/8, missing Selma.
  • 2015: They matched the Oscar nominees 7/8, missing Room.
  • 2016: They matched the Oscar nominees 9/9.

That’s a pretty impressive rate of prediction. And of the four films they’ve missed, three were Globe nominees for Best Picture – Drama, which makes my job all the easier.

So let’s see what they’ve got for us this year.

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