Well, that didn’t go so well (for me).
And, if you ask me, it didn’t go that well in any case. But how not-well I’ll explain by degrees…
(My predictions in full here.)
Best Picture – Drama: Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri
I predicted: The Shape of Water
To be fair, Three Billboards was my runner-up, And I admitted my own potential bias (I think it’s good film, but I’m not an unequivocal fan), so I don’t feel like I was horribly off-base. But until fairly late in the game it looked like it could’ve gone either way.
Best Picture – Musical/Comedy: Lady Bird
I predicted: Lady Bird
Not surprised at all. I know Get Out was and is a contender, but just going off the reviews, this seemed to be much more their speed. I’d personally have been a little happier if they’d gone with I, Tonya, but that’s neither here nor there.
Best Director: Guillermo Del Toro, The Shape of Water
I predicted: Guillermo Del Toro
I actually forgot I went with him. I jokingly took him in a coin toss over Christopher Nolan. Which is pretty much the case with my own awards at the moment – they both deserve to win. Really glad about this, though, and so happy for him. Hopefully this is not the last win for him.
Best Actor – Drama: Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour
I predicted: Gary Oldman
This probably sets the stage for him to win SAG, BAFTA, and the Oscar. Which…that’s fine. Chalamet seemed like a long shot just because of his youth. Not that this is sewn up or anything, but I can see the narrative forming.
Best Actress – Drama: Frances McDormand, Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri
I predicted: Frances McDormand
Maybe my predictions weren’t totally scotched after all. Huh.
Anyway, as with Oldman, this puts her in a good position to pretty much win everything else this season. Which, although I’m not as big on the performance as some are, I can work with. She’s awesome and the performance is strong. (Jessica Chastain winning would’ve been great, though.)
Best Actor – Musical/Comedy: James Franco, The Disaster Artist
I predicted: James Franco
Tommy Wiseau, Golden Globe winner. Probably soon to be Tommy Wiseau, Oscar nominee.
What more is there to say beyond that?
Best Actress – Musical/Comedy: Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird
I predicted: Saoirse Ronan
Pity about Margot Robbie (who’d have been my vote), but I can’t complain about Ronan. I wonder how much of a run for her money she’ll give McDormand.
Best Supporting Actor: Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri
I predicted: Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project
Again, they went with my alternate. And I figured it’d be close. The fact that they loved Three Billboards and gave Florida Project just the one nod might’ve been a tip-off. This is still very much a two-horse race, but Rockwell has the edge (and if his film keeps winning big, he’ll maintain it).
Best Supporting Actress: Allison Janney, I, Tonya
I predicted: Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird
Again, my alternate won; again, this is still a very tight race. Ironic that Metcalf lost while Ronan and the film won – and more ironic, perhaps, that I would’ve given Metcalf the award while giving the Globes to Robbie and her film, but I just found Metcalf’s performance a bit more nuanced and affecting; Janney is good, but the character is just a bit static in her chain-smoking meanness.
Best Screenplay: Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri
I predicted: Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri
It just felt like the kind of script that was going to win (and it just might win the Oscar). Whatever issues I personally have with it, it’s a hard piece of screenwriting to ignore, and they didn’t.
Best Original Score: The Shape of Water
I predicted: Dunkirk
I don’t mind at all, since I loved Shape, but I am slightly bummed Dunkirk went home empty-handed. We’ll see how much further it goes, but Desplat might be in a position to win his second Oscar.
Best Original Song: “This is Me”, The Greatest Showman
I predicted: “Remember Me”, Coco
Anytime the world wants to stop kissing Pasek & Paul’s ass is fine with me.
I did say “This is Me” could be a rogue winner. But man…how do you go with that over “Remember Me”? It boggles the mind.
Best Foreign Film: In the Fade
I predicted: The Square
Probably the single biggest upset of the night. I really figured it wasn’t happening because of the weak reception it got (66% on Rotten Tomatoes). But whatever. I doubt the Oscars will go for it. (Who knows, though. It’s not like there’s a real front-runner in this category.)
Best Animated Film: Coco
I predicted: Coco
I mean, really.
I still say that Best Song loss is inexplicable.
So let’s tally up and see how I did on my predictions.
Of 14 categories, I predicted 8 exactly, which is 57%. Not too great.
But of the six categories I missed, three of them went to my alternate choice. Counting each of those for half-credit, I got 9½ right, which raises my score to 68%. (Well, 67.8%) Still not great, but less terrible.
Really, Foreign Film is the only one I really didn’t see coming, but that category is so unpredictable that it really doesn’t matter.
Enough about me; what all can we take away from these awards?
- Three Billboards and Lady Bird are now your Oscar front-runners, with The Shape of Water right behind them. We’ll see what the BAFTAs say on Tuesday and the Academy two weeks after that, but I doubt that’s going to change greatly, unless Greta Gerwig gets snubbed in Best Director (which, admittedly, could happen).
- The Post went 0 for 6. Not a great start for a film that also missed SAG and the WGA. Aside from the NBR wins, it really hasn’t done that well, and I have to wonder how much its luck will change.
- Dunkirk went 0 for 3, but that’s less surprising. I figured it wasn’t the kind of film they’d really go for.
- Get Out lost both of its nods, but as with Dunkirk. I wouldn’t be too worried. Worry if the BAFTAs don’t nominate it for anything.
- Animated Film is all about Coco.
- Foreign Film is wide fucking open.
- Supporting Actor and Actress are both two-horse races.
- This is, overall, still a very open year. Which is fine by me.