And now the Producers Guild chimes in. They’re traditionally a very solid barometer of most, but not all, of the Best Picture nominees. I’ll get into more in a moment, but first, the nominees:
- Hacksaw Ridge
- Hell or High Water
- Hidden Figures
- La La Land
- Manchester By the Sea
Now, given the results of the past two years, 7 of these will get nominated, and the Academy will add one. When there were 9 Best Picture nominees, it was about the same deal – 8 of these, and one from AMPAS.
So what’ll it be this year?
First, let’s sort out the locks.
La La Land, Manchester By the Sea, and Moonlight go without saying.
Arrival and Hell or High Water are pretty much locked.
Hacksaw Ridge is more likely than not, though I’m still thinking Gibson’s past behavior will count against it.
The other four get a bit trickier, so let’s take them one by one.
I’m going to take off Deadpool. I’m not saying there’s no way in hell it could happen, but I’m not predicting it. Everyone will shit themselves if it happens anyway.
The last three – Fences, Hidden Figures, and Lion – are tough. Because at least one of them is happening. Possibly two. But it’s extremely unlikely that all three will.
Going off the weight the SAG ensemble award carries, I’d take off Lion, since the other two were nominated.
But there’s an odd little statistic though that throws a bit of a wrench into the works. In the past three years, the film that missed the PGA but made the Oscar list was a Best Picture nominee at the Globes: Room, Selma, and Philomena.
This year, however, all five Globe nominees for Picture – Drama made the list. And Lion was one of them. So we have to look elsewhere.
Now, none of these three films got Picture nominations from BAFTA. But Hidden Figures got a Screenplay nomination, Fences got a Supporting Actor nod, and Lion got 5 nominations.
So let’s say Lion is the 7th film. Fences hasn’t had much traction in the Picture categories, and Hidden Figures may have opened too late. This is all guesswork, to be sure, and don’t bet the farm based on my guesses…but at least you know I’m trying.
So that leaves one, very hypothetical question: what film will the Academy add to the lineup? It’s not certain they will, to be fair – the PGA hasn’t predicted every nominee in 20 years, but precedents are made to be broken.
Silence could happen. The Academy got screeners. And it is Scorsese.
Nocturnal Animals could happen. 9 BAFTA nominations are hard to overlook.
Sully could happen. It’s Eastwood. And the film was a hit.
Captain Fantastic could happen. It’s extremely unlikely…but that SAG ensemble nomination has me wondering.
Loving would seem to be DOA, but I wouldn’t totally count it out. Ditto with Jackie.
A foreign nominee might happen. Toni Erdmann? If anything, it’s that. Unless there’s a faction ready to throw all their weight behind Elle. Neither are very likely, but this is a strange year.
Oh shit, what about an animated nominee? You think Zootopia might have enough support to break through?
Fuck it. I don’t know. Let’s see what the DGA says on Thursday. I have another two weeks to try and figure out what’s going to happen anyway.