The multiple categories for Picture, Actor, and Actress and the single category for Screenplay may limit the effect the Globes have on the Oscars. But they can’t be overlooked as a step on the way there.
And here are my final predictions for them.
Picture – Drama:
- Hacksaw Ridge (#52)
- Hell or High Water (#21)
- Lion (#25)
- Manchester By the Sea (#27)
- Moonlight (#20)
I’ll tell you right now, this is between Manchester and Moonlight. The other three are runners-up.
And given that Moonlight seems to have more traction in this particular category, I say it wins. Manchester will win elsewhere, but I’d say it has, at best, a 25% chance of taking this.
Picture – Musical/Comedy:
- Deadpool (#49)
- Florence Foster Jenkins (#24)
- La La Land (#N/A)
- Sing Street
- 20th Century Women
La La Land. Game over.
Literally anything else winning would be a massive, massive upset. If anything did…maybe Deadpool. But that has maybe a 5% chance of upsetting. At the absolute best.
- Damien Chazelle, La La Land (#N/A)
- Tom Ford, Nocturnal Animals (#6)
- Mel Gibson, Hacksaw Ridge (#N/A – mid-upper 20s)
- Barry Jenkins, Moonlight (#11)
- Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester By the Sea (#22)
This one’s a bit more up in the air. Gibson is an also-ran, Lonergan is a perennial nominee who won’t win, and Ford, although I’d argue he did the best job here, isn’t going to happen.
It’s between Chazelle and Jenkins. And Chazelle did the much flashier job of directing. So I’d say he takes it. But Jenkins is definitely a contender.
Best Actor – Drama:
- Casey Affleck, Manchester By the Sea (#2)
- Joel Edgerton, Loving (#7)
- Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge (#N/A*)
- Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic (#21)
- Denzel Washington, Fences (#1)
Hopefully I can get around to watching Captain Fantastic soon. Not that I think Mortensen will win (though, he got SAG, he might pull an upset), but I’d like to fit him into my own rankings.
There’s a sliver of uncertainty here, since Washington was something of a late entry into the race (and, for my money, should win), but Affleck has been the front-runner most of the season, and I expect that’ll continue here.
*I did not consider Garfield’s performance strong enough to merit ranking.
Actress – Drama:
- Amy Adams, Arrival (#7)
- Jessica Chastain, Miss Sloane
- Isabelle Huppert, Elle (#8)
- Ruth Negga, Loving (#9)
- Natalie Portman, Jackie (#1)
Man, that Miss Sloane nomination doesn’t look great. I didn’t even get to see it, since it was gone from theaters so quickly.
Right now, I’d say Portman is the one to beat, and deservedly so, as she was incredible. But Adams and Huppert should be considered possible threats, especially Huppert.
Actor – Musical/Comedy:
- Colin Farrell, The Lobster (#12)
- Ryan Gosling, La La Land (#N/A)
- Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins (#5)
- Jonah Hill, War Dogs (#N/A – low 30s Supporting)
- Ryan Reynolds, Deadpool (#N/A – mid 20s)
Kind of hoping Gosling doesn’t win. I didn’t think he was that good. Not that I don’t like him, but I’d honestly have nominated him for The Nice Guys instead.
This category is actually pretty open. Farrell is great and a previous winner, so don’t rule him out. Gosling is in the darling of the category and might well come along for the ride. Grant is wonderful and as a SAG nod (in Supporting) to bolster his odds. And Reynolds was in one of the year’s biggest hits, which got made mostly because he wanted it to be made.
Hill is solid, but he’s easily the outlier here.
My gut says this is between the Ryans. And I’m gonna roll the dice a bit and say they take Reynolds, rather than let La La Land just win everything.
Don’t bet the farm on it, but I think this could happen.
Actress – Musical/Comedy:
- Annette Bening, 20th Century Women
- Lily Collins, Rules Don’t Apply (#19)
- Hailee Steinfeld, The Edge of Seventeen (#10)
- Emma Stone, La La Land (#N/A)
- Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins (#5)
I think this is Stone’s to lose.
Bening has a small chance, but I wouldn’t bank on it. Collins is just lucky to be here, as is Steinfeld. Streep is a threat – they liked her film – but Stone and her film have an awful lot of momentum. So I’m going with her.
- Mahershala Ali, Moonlight (#10)
- Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water (#14 in Actor)
- Simon Helberg, Florence Foster Jenkins (#N/A – mid-upper 30s)
- Dev Patel, Lion (#27)
- Aaron Taylor-Johnson, Nocturnal Animals (#15)
This is a weird category. I’d argue at least three of these nominees could be replaced by superior choices from their own films.
Ali is good, but I’d take Ashton Sanders or André Holland over him. Patel is okay, but Sunny Pawar (playing Saroo as a child) is better. And Taylor-Johnson is solid, but Michael Shannon is much, much stronger (and has been getting most of the awards attention).
That being said, Ali has been the big winner all season long. Maybe they show Hell or High Water some love and take Bridges, but I doubt it.
- Viola Davis, Fences (#1)
- Naomie Harris, Moonlight (#2)
- Nicole Kidman, Lion (#16)
- Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures
- Michelle Williams, Manchester By the Sea (#8)
I don’t really see why Kidman needed to be nominated. She’s solid enough, but it feels like they didn’t have a strong #5 and went with a familiar face.
Anyhow, I’d say this comes down to Davis and Williams. Harris hasn’t actually won much since the NBR, and Spencer…I just don’t think she’ll win.
Between the two, I’d take Davis in a heartbeat. She’s magnificent. And I think the Globes will agree. I’d put the odds between her and Williams at around 75%-25%.
- Hell or High Water (#3 Original)
- La La Land (#N/A)
- Manchester By the Sea (#6 Original)
- Moonlight (#8 Adapted)
- Nocturnal Animals (#3 Adapted)
Kind of shocked they didn’t take Nocturnal Animals in Picture – Drama. It’s honestly better than any of the other nominees. And it should win here – it’s the best script they nominated.
But I suspect this is Manchester‘s to lose. Hell isn’t out of the question, Moonlight could happen, and (barf) La La Land is beloved enough that it might just happen. The Globes do sometimes throw curveballs in this category – like Steve Jobs winning last year over Spotlight – but I don’t think it’ll happen this time.
- Hidden Figures
- La La Land
We have a musical poised to win several major awards.
Do you really think it won’t win here as well?
I suppose there’s a slim chance Hidden Figures wins, since Pharrell worked on the score. But I’m fairly certain as to how this will go.
(After seeing Arrival again, I feel like that has a shot. It’s a fairly impressive score. Probably won’t be enough to win, but don’t totally rule it out.)
- “Can’t Stop the Feeling!”, Trolls
- “City of Stars”, La La Land
- “Faith”, Sing
- “Gold”, Gold
- “How Far I’ll Go”, Moana
This is a toss-up for me. Either they go with Lin-Manuel Miranda and take “How Far I’ll Go”, or they take the big winner of the night and go with “City of Stars”.
“How Far I’ll Go” is the better song, and honestly, seeing some of the choices they’ve made in this category in the past, I could see it winning. If they’d nominated “Audition (Fools Who Dream)” instead of “City of Stars” I might go with that, but honestly, I’ll go with Miranda and be proven wrong.
- The Salesman
- Toni Erdmann
Toni Erdmann seems the likeliest choice. It has the most traction and seems the favorite for the Oscar. Plus, it sounds like a likable movie, which gives it an edge over Elle (as great as that film is). The Salesman could do it, though. Don’t rule it out.
- Kubo and the Two Strings
- My Life as a Zucchini
My Life as a Zucchini won’t win. So set that aside.
The other three all have a shot at winning. Kubo is the critical darling, Moana is the classical Disney epic, and Zootopia is the socially relevant choice (and a critical darling in its own right).
Given that Zootopia has done well this season despite opening so early in the year, I give it the edge. Don’t be shocked if something else wins, but consider this the most likely.
All right. I’ll check back in Monday morning and we’ll see how I did.