Ha. Ha .Ha.
Picture – Drama: Moonlight
I predicted: Moonlight
A lot of my predictions were off the mark. But I was right about this.
Picture – Musical/Comedy: La La Land
I predicted: La La Land
There was no way this wasn’t going to win, but…just keep reading.
Director: Damien Chazelle, La La Land
I predicted: Damien Chazelle, La La Land
Wouldn’t it be funny if he missed the DGA? He won’t, but I think it’d be hilarious if he somehow did.
Actor – Drama: Casey Affleck, Manchester By the Sea
I predicted: Casey Affleck, Manchester By the Sea
So it goes. Not a bad choice at all, just…not my choice.
Actress – Drama: Isabelle Huppert, Elle
I predicted: Natalie Portman, Jackie
Here’s where my predictions start to go a little awry. I’m not mad, though. Huppert was great. Hopefully I’ll feel justified in bumping her up my list once I rewatch Elle (which, I could imagine, will get a nice little boost after this).
Pity about Natalie and her film, but this year was dominated by three films and it wasn’t one of them.
Actor – Musical/Comedy: Ryan Gosling, La La Land
I predicted: Ryan Reynolds, Deadpool
This wasn’t that much of a surprise. I was expecting what most would’ve considered an upset, and the HFPA went with the obvious choice.
Still would’ve been nice if Colin Farrell had won.
Actress – Musical/Comedy: Emma Stone, La La Land
I predicted: Emma Stone, La La Land
I mean, yeah.
Supporting Actor: Aaron Taylor-Johnson, Nocturnal Animals
I predicted: Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
I think just about everyone shit themselves when this happened. This was a hell of a way to kick off the night.
I’m torn, because I loved Nocturnal Animals, but I thought Ali was better than Taylor-Johnson. Had they nominated Michael Shannon, that’d be a different matter.
I really have to wonder if he’ll go on to an Oscar nomination. You have to go back quite a ways to find the last Globe winner in this category who didn’t get nominated.
Supporting Actress: Viola Davis, Fences
I predicted: Viola Davis, Fences
At least they got this award very, very right. Let’s just hope the Academy and SAG do as well.
Screenplay: La La Land
I predicted: Manchester By the Sea
I admit, I still need to see La La Land a second time. I might appreciate it a lot more then.
But I can’t imagine anyone would make the case for the script being the best part of it. Or even being that good.
However, it’s worth remembering that the Globes hiccuped here last year, giving the award to Steve Jobs, which didn’t even earn an Oscar nomination (though that was, to be fair, a bit of a surprise in its own right).
Score: La La Land
I predicted: La La Land
Wait for it…
Song: “City of Stars”, La La Land
I predicted: “How Far I’ll Go”, Moana
Both times I went out on a limb and bet against La La Land, I was proven wrong.
It set the record tonight for Globe wins – 7. And it pulled off a clean sweep, winning every award it was nominated for.
I’ll get into what this means shortly.
Animated Feature: Zootopia
I predicted: Zootopia
I don’t know if this is a shoo-in for the Oscar, but its chances are looking better by the day. I probably should rewatch and see if I’m more forgiving of the writing issues I noted the first time around.
Foreign Language Film: Elle
I predicted: Toni Erdmann
It didn’t make the Oscar shortlist, so this is as far as it’ll go in this category. Not an unpleasant surprise at all, though, as it’s an excellent film.
Okay, let’s do a little math.
I got 8/14 predictions correct, which is 57%. Not too good. A couple of those I probably should’ve known better on, but I put what I put in writing. So I have to accept it.
Now, as for what the results mean:
La La Land is in a good position. Right now, you have to consider it and Moonlight the primary contenders for Best Picture. Unless Manchester really starts cleaning up at the guilds, I think it’ll have to content itself with Best Actor and, probably, Original Screenplay (because…come on).
There’s a couple things to keep in mind before you assume La La Land has as good as won. First, it opened comparatively late in the year – December 9, three weeks after Manchester and seven weeks after Moonlight. Those films had a head start which can’t be totally ignored.
Second, it didn’t get a SAG nomination for Best Cast in a Motion Picture. Now, to be fair, it wasn’t much of an ensemble piece – it was pretty much all Stone and Gosling. That said, no film has won without such a nomination since 1995. That’s not to say it can’t happen – but it’s not a total done deal.
Also, the Globes and Oscars haven’t matched perfectly the last few years. 12 Years a Slave ended up winning Best Picture despite only winning Picture – Drama at the Globes. Birdman actually lost Picture – Musical/Comedy to The Grand Budapest Hotel, but won Best Picture (and Director, which it had lost to Boyhood).
And last year, Spotlight went 0 for 3 at the Globes…before going on to win Best Picture.
So let’s not let what happened tonight fix our minds as to what’s going to happen February 26. At this point, we don’t even know what will be nominated.
Though I suspect La La Land will make a healthy showing…