- Hell or High Water
- La La Land
- Manchester By the Sea
It’d be weird if Moonlight won this, since the Academy ruled it Adapted (which it really seems to be).
The Lobster wasn’t eligible, so I’m not bemoaning its absence.
My guess is Manchester wins this, though I’m rooting for Hell or High Water.
As for the Oscar category, Hell or High Water, La La Land (why?), and Manchester are locks. I hope The Lobster gets on; it’s looking decently likely (especially since Moonlight won’t be here).
Not sure what the fifth will be, though. Possibly Loving, or maybe Hacksaw Ridge if they really go all-in on that one.Or, hell, Florence Foster Jenkins might be the one. I don’t really know at this point.
- Hidden Figures
- Nocturnal Animals
Hell yeah, Nocturnal Animals!
And for you Deadpool fans going wild right now, enjoy it. He’s not getting an Oscar nomination. For one, Moonlight‘ll be knocking at least one of these out of the category. And I imagine Lion and/or Silence will find their way on here as well.
Arrival is a lock. Hidden Figures isn’t locked but is looking more likely all the time. Nocturnal Animals is up in the air, since that film wasn’t a huge success (though the writing has been fairly consistently noted). I’d say Lion and Moonlight are in. Fences is kind of a wild card right now, since it could be seen as more of an acting showcase (and, much as I love it, even I wouldn’t say it needs a writing nomination).
- Author: The JT LeRoy Story
- Command and Control
- Zero Days
Haven’t seen any of these. I’ll root for Author since it sounds like the best of them.