SAG Award nominations are here. And the overall picture becomes, for the most part, just a little bit clearer.
- Casey Affleck, Manchester By the Sea
- Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge
- Ryan Gosling, La La Land
- Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic
- Denzel Washington, Fences
Are you fucking shitting me? Garfield? For that role?! I mean, I wasn’t the biggest fan of Loving, but Joel Edgerton blew him out of the fucking WATER!
And now he might actually get nominated. Which might actively piss me off.
Also, Mortensen, still in the mix. That’s something I legit did not see coming. Doesn’t mean he’ll make the final cut, but he’s certainly in a good position.
Affleck and Washington were locks. Gosling being here is a touch of a surprise, since, for whatever reason, I figured Emma Stone would be the only one getting nominated.
Affleck wins. And he’ll win the Oscar. Most likely.
- Amy Adams, Arrival
- Emily Blunt, The Girl on the Train
- Natalie Portman, Jackie
- Emma Stone, La La Land
- Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins
No Huppert. Not sure if that really means anything. They didn’t nominate Marion Cotillard for Two Days, One Night a couple of years ago and she still got an Oscar nom. So I’m not counting her out by any means.
No Ruth Negga. That’s more of a surprise. This group shunned Loving, which is odd to me. No Rebecca Hall, either, but that’s not really a surprise.
I’m not mad about Blunt being here. She actually did a hell of a job. The movie wasn’t all that great, but she definitely put in the work. And Streep is great as well. She’s just been nominated so many times.
Adams now seems like a reasonably safe bet for a nomination. And, of course, Portman and Stone.
Portman will probably win this, but I regard this category, for the time being, as somewhat open.
Best Supporting Actor:
- Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
- Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water
- Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins
- Lucas Hedges, Manchester By the Sea
- Dev Patel, Lion
Grant is a lead. He is a damn lead. He has at least as much screentime as Streep. You could argue Bridges is Supporting because it’s such an ensemble piece. Maybe you could make a case for Patel, I don’t know. But Grant… no. He is absolutely a lead. And better than some of the people they actually nominated lead. So fuck you.
Ali is a mortal lock at this point. Bridges seems pretty safe. Hedges is still up in the air. So many awards groups stuck him in the “Young Actor/Actress” category, so it’s hard to say if he’s got the same traction as Affleck or Williams. And Patel is looking more and more likely.
So that leaves two slots which are not solidly filled. And who might fill them, if not Grant and Hedges? Issey Ogata for Silence? Michael Shannon for Nocturnal Animals (or Aaron Taylor-Johnson, for that matter)? Ben Foster? There are possibilities here.
Ali wins though. That much I know.
Best Supporting Actress:
- Viola Davis, Fences
- Naomie Harris, Moonlight
- Nicole Kidman, Lion
- Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures
- Michelle Williams, Manchester By the Sea
A perfect match with the Globes. And all 5 were nominated at the Satellites. Critics’ Choice had 6 nominees, and four of these (swapping out Octavia Spencer for Janelle Monáe, and adding Greta Gerwig for 20th Century Women). All 5 of them were nominated at the Satellites (who added Helen Mirren from Eye in the Sky for good measure).
So are these 5 our likely Oscar category? Who else is there? Gerwig?
I think we might have our category.
I’m going to guess Davis wins. But Williams is right there, and so is Harris.
Best Cast in a Motion Picture:
- Captain Fantastic
- Hidden Figures
- Manchester By the Sea
Woah. Captain Fantastic. That’s a bit of a shock. They 0ften nominate at least one film that doesn’t have a shot in hell at Best Picture (last year, only two of their nominees got Picture nods), and I’ll assume this doesn’t either.
Fences is also a mild surprise. But it’s based on a classic play and sounds like an acting showcase, so I can see it.
Hidden Figures has been doing very well in this category (which the Academy really should adopt). I think that could help nudge it into Best Picture. Just a hunch. Don’t be shocked if it happens.
Something to consider. 1995 (the second year of the SAG Awards) was the last time a film won Best Picture without being nominated here. So that might prove a problem for La La Land. On the other hand, no one outside of Stone and Gosling seems to be getting much attention, so maybe it’s still the film to beat?
But Moonlight will likely win this, and that might just carry it over in the end. We’ll have to see.
So that’s SAG. I think we’ve got a breather before any more major awards news. So I’m going to try and catch up on some films. Most of you are probably going to see Star Wars this weekend.
I’m more interested in Collateral Beauty.