Picture – Drama:
- Hacksaw Ridge (#42)
- Hell or High Water (#15)
- Manchester By the Sea (#N/A)
- Moonlight (#14)
Finally saw Manchester. I need to see it again, but for now: I think it’s fine, but I’m not especially a fan. It was always happening, though. As was Moonlight.
Hell or High Water isn’t all that surprising. It’s one resilient little film. I’m happy for it. Hacksaw Ridge is a bit more of a surprise, but I get it. I really wonder if that’s going to carry over to the Academy, if they’re willing to embrace Gibson again.
I shouldn’t be surprised by Lion. It’s got Harvey Weinstein behind it. It just feels like the kind of film that’s never going to actually win anything and takes nominations away from interesting stuff.
I’m guessing this is Moonlight‘s to lose.
Picture – Musical/Comedy:
- Deadpool (#39)
- Florence Foster Jenkins (#18)
- La La Land
- Sing Street
- 20th Century Women
This category irks me, but I’ll explain why under Best Actor.
Really need to see Sing Street. It looked like fun, I just never got around to it. They like British films here (they nominated Pride a couple of years ago), and this was a weakish year for comedy, so I get it.
Deadpool I get, though I can think of films that deserved it more (Don’t Think Twice, anyone?). Florence is a fine choice. And I’m more and more excited for 20th Century Women.
But La La Land is winning this by a mile.
- Damien Chazelle, La La Land
- Tom Ford, Nocturnal Animals
- Mel Gibson, Hacksaw Ridge (#N/A – probably would come in around #17 or 18)
- Barry Jenkins, Moonlight (#8)
- Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester By the Sea (#N/A)
Chazelle and Jenkins are probably going to duke it out for the Oscar. Lonergan is a fairly locked-in nominee (though I’m not sure he needs to be).
Then we have Ford, whose film has received pretty mixed reviews (though I still really want to see it), and Gibson, who…well, we know about him. And I’m really wondering if the Academy will cave and nominate him. It’s not such incredible direction that they’d have to.
It’s down to Chazelle and Jenkins. I can’t see anyone else being a real spoiler.
Best Actor – Drama:
- Casey Affleck, Manchester By the Sea (#N/A)
- Joel Edgerton, Loving (#5)
- Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge (#N/A – see below)
- Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic
- Denzel Washington, Fences
I’m just gonna get this out of the way: that Garfield nomination is absurd. At best he’s fine. But those early scenes where he’s trying to woo Teresa Palmer are just painful. He’s trying to be charmingly awkward and just comes off as creepy.
Need to see Captain Fantastic. He might actually have a shot at an Oscar. Stranger things have happened. I figured they’d push him Musical/Comedy, but apparently not.
Affleck is going to win, which I guess is okay. I wasn’t all that blown away by him, but he’s certainly solid. Edgerton is good too, though it’s a very low-key performance. Always nice when the awards groups recognize subtlety (and then they nominate Hacksaw Ridge, ha ha).
Actress – Drama:
- Amy Adams, Arrival (#N/A – need to rewatch the film)
- Jessica Chastain, Miss Sloane
- Isabelle Huppert, Elle (#3? – also need to rewatch)
- Ruth Negga, Loving (#7)
- Natalie Portman, Jackie
Fuck yeah, Isabelle Huppert! If the Oscars fuck her over I’ll be so pissed.
She might win this, too. She’s won a lot of critics awards. It’s down to her or Portman.
Adams is good (a little surprised she wasn’t nominated for Nocturnal Animals, though). Negga, like Joel Edgerton, is good, but very subdued. Doubt she’d win. Chastain is in a film that wasn’t all that well received. But she’s been kind of AWOL of late, so it’s fine.
Actor – Musical/Comedy:
- Colin Farrell, The Lobster (#9)
- Ryan Gosling, La La Land
- Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins (#3)
- Jonah Hill, War Dogs (#N/A – probably around #19 or 20 in Supporting Actor)
- Ryan Reynolds, Deadpool (#N/A – probably around #21 or 22)
YES!!!!! And NO!!!!!!
I’m so damn happy they nominated Colin Farrell. And so damn annoyed they didn’t nominate the film for Picture. Did we really need a Picture nod for Deadpool? Sure, it was good, but it wasn’t The Lobster good.
Actually, this is a really good category. Grant is amazing. He’d actually be my vote. Hill is solid. I thought they might pick him. And Reynolds is fun. Plus that film was his baby, so I get it.
Gosling, I’ll be curious to see if he gets in for the Oscar. That’s a nice little wildcard for that category.
Not sure who wins this. Probably one of the Ryans? But they gave this to Farrell in 2008 for In Bruges, so maybe he takes it? That would delight me.
Actress – Musical/Comedy:
- Annette Bening, 20th Century Women
- Lily Collins, Rules Don’t Apply (#16)
- Hailee Steinfeld, The Edge of Seventeen (#8)
- Emma Stone, La La Land
- Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins (#4)
Hell yeah, Hailee Steinfeld! Glad she got on. She was really good in that film (and it’s a nice little film in its own right). Also, good for Lily Collins. That’s a strange fucking film, but she’s good in it, and given how bad it flopped, I’m glad it got some notice.
Stone was always going to be here. She’ll probably win. But Streep is great, and Bening has a decent amount of traction. So who knows for sure?
- Mahershala Ali, Moonlight (#7)
- Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water (#11 in Actor)
- Simon Helberg, Florence Foster Jenkins (#N/A – probably around #25)
- Dev Patel, Lion
- Aaron Taylor-Johnson, Nocturnal Animals
Interesting category we have here.
Ali’s the frontrunner. By far. Bridges is the only other person with any traction to speak of. And he’s a distant second (I also consider him a lead, but I digress). So consider this category sewn up.
Which leaves us with the other three. I had an inkling Helberg could happen. Him being a TV star, and the Globes being the Globes, it makes sense. It’s a funny little performance, though I don’t think it really merited a nomination.
Patel seems like he should be a lead, but I haven’t seen the film, so I can’t say. Again, it just feels like such an also-ran. But again…it has Harvey.
Taylor-Johnson was a shock to me. Michael Shannon had been getting all the buzz for that film. I’m not complaining or anything, but it definitely caught me off guard.
- Viola Davis, Fences
- Naomie Harris, Moonlight (#1)
- Nicole Kidman, Lion
- Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures
- Michelle Williams, Manchester By the Sea (#N/A)
I thought Spencer could happen. Just a hunch. I like being right.
Davis seems like a lead. But whatever. She might win, which would be fine. Harris is great, but she’s gotten some backlash for whatever reason, so I figure she’ll be a sure nominee and fail to actually win.
Williams, like her film, was good, but I don’t quite see what everyone else is losing their shit over. It felt like she was going to have at least one more scene and didn’t. She’s the other major contender, but I feel like she and her film are losing just a bit of steam.
Kidman might get on the Oscar list. I could see it. No idea if she really merits it.
- Hell or High Water (#3 in Original)
- La La Land
- Manchester By the Sea (#N/A)
- Moonlight (#6 in Original – though early reports suggested it was Adapted)
- Nocturnal Animals
They really liked Nocturnal Animals, didn’t they?
Hell or High Water is nice to see. That was a solid script.
La La Land is an interesting choice. I’d assumed that, as a musical, the writing took a back seat to the songs. Maybe not.
This would seem to come down to Manchester and Moonlight, neither of which I thought were the greatest scripts of the year. I actually might pick Moonlight. But Manchester will probably win.
- Hidden Figures
- La La Land
I don’t remember Arrival having an especially noteworthy score. Moonlight was pretty solid in that regard, though not a slam-dunk for me.
Does La La Land have a notable score outside of the songs? I don’t actually know.
Hidden Figures and Lion are unknown quantities to me.
- “Can’t Stop the Feeling!”, Trolls (#N/A)
- “City of Stars”, La La Land
- “Faith”, Sing
- “Gold”, Gold
- “How Far I’ll Go”, Moana (#N/A, but would probably be in my top 10)
They couldn’t even nominate one song from Popstar?
“How Far I’ll Go” is the only song on this list I really know at all. I’ve seen Trolls, but the song didn’t make an impression on me. I haven’t heard the other songs.
They nominated Sing. Ick.
They nominated Gold. Because that film exists. And will probably make no impact whatsoever.
I’ll assume “City of Stars” wins this, but they might want to give it to Lin-Manuel Miranda (“How Far I’ll Go”). I don’t really care either way.
- Elle (#6; #1 Foreign Film)
- The Salesman
- Toni Erdmann
Swap out Divines for something else and this might be the Oscar category. Can’t be The Handmaiden, since South Korea didn’t submit it.
I’d guess this is between Elle and Toni Erdmann. Either is fine by me.
- Kubo and the Two Strings (#37; #5 Animated Film)
- Moana (#9; #2 Animated Film)
- My Life as a Zucchini
- Zootopia (#16; #4 Animated Film)
You’re gonna nominate Sing, which looks like crap, and not Finding Dory, which was one of the few films this year I really loved? Fuckers.
Zootopia seems to be picking up steam again. I think it might actually win the Oscar. Kubo is a threat, but it made far less money (and I actually think it’s the weaker film).
Kind of want to see My Life as a Zucchini. That might be cute.
So that wraps up the Globes for now. No major upsets. A few surprises – some pleasant, some not – but on the whole this season is taking a very definite shape.