I told ’em.
I fuckin’ told ’em!
You can’t keep a great film down.
You just can’t.
And they didn’t.
Picture – Drama:
- Mad Max: Fury Road
- The Revenant
I called that shit.
See, I read a few predictions, and none of them predicted Mad Max would get on. They figured Brooklyn and Bridge of Spies (or perhaps The Hateful Eight) would’ve made the cut. But I figured Brooklyn didn’t have much heat outside of Actress, nor Bridge outside of Supporting Actor.
And you can’t deny what is (in many opinions beside my own) the best film of the year.
As for the rest: Carol I just need to see. The Revenant needed the boost (reviews have been suprisingly mixed), Room is a bit of a shock (but hardly unwelcome), and Spotlight must be considered your frontrunner…but not by as much as you’d expect.
Picture – Musical/Comedy:
- The Big Short
- The Martian
Given how bad this year was for Comedies, I think they managed a fairly respectable category. I’d swap out Joy for Tangerine, but besides that, it’s passable.
I know some were predicting Grandma to make it on, but I couldn’t see that happening. Youth, too, but I felt from the start that its chances were being drastically overestimated.
Nice to see Spy here. That was a really fun little movie. Never did see Trainwreck.
The Martian really doesn’t belong here (it’s a Drama, just one with a lot of humor), and the strong showing for The Big Short makes me think it could take this. It’ll be close.
Director – Motion Picture:
- Todd Haynes, Carol
- Alejandro G. Iñárritu, The Revenant
- Tom McCarthy, Spotlight
- George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road
- Ridley Scott, The Martian
And of course, George Miller. Who might actually win this.
This solidifies Haynes’ position. Iñárritu needed the boost–good for him. McCarthy was pretty much a lock. Scott remains in the game.
No Spielberg. Oh well. No Tarantino. Odd.
This might well be our Oscar category. If the DGA’s list matches this, consider it prognosticated.
Actor – Drama:
- Bryan Cranston, Trumbo
- Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant
- Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs
- Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl
- Will Smith, Concussion
They put Will Smith over Johnny Depp? Huh.
Cranston continues to make a strong showing. Good for him. I wouldn’t mind too much if the Academy went for him.
DiCaprio and Fassbender were pretty much locks. Redmayne is now, unfortunately.
Leo or Fassbender wins this. More likely Leo.
Actress – Drama:
- Cate Blanchett, Carol
- Brie Larson, Room
- Rooney Mara, Carol
- Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn
- Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl
Oh, you bastards. Put Mara Lead, will you? Make it all the more confusing, will you?
Oh, and Vikander is Lead here. This won’t be confusing at all.
Blanchett, Larson, and Ronan were all locked in. Too bad they didn’t make room for Theron. But no matter.
It’s between Larson and Ronan, but since Room got the Picture nod, I think that gives Larson a boost. Which is fine by me.
Actor – Musical/Comedy:
- Christian Bale, The Big Short
- Steve Carell, The Big Short
- Matt Damon, The Martian
- Al Pacino, Danny Collins
- Mark Ruffalo, Infinitely Polar Bear
We knew this category was going to be terrible. I think they eased the pain about as much as they possibly could, but still.
Bale, as far as I know/SAG said, is Supporting. But whatever. Pacino’s film came and went long ago. But there was really no one else. Ruffalo, I assume, they had in their pocket so they wouldn’t have to nominate Bradley Cooper for Burnt (and yes, that looked like a very real possibility).
Also, his film made $1.4 million. You can’t tell me Tangerine was too small for them.
Carell and Damon were the locks here. Damon most likely wins.
Actress – Musical/Comedy:
- Jennifer Lawrence, Joy
- Melissa McCarthy, Spy
- Amy Schumer, Trainwreck
- Maggie Smith, The Lady in the Van
- Lily Tomlin, Grandma
No Bel Powley, Blythe Danner, Kitana Kiki Rodriguez, or Mya Taylor? Would’ve made this category more interesting.
Lawrence was always happening (also, I knew this and Picture- Musical/Comedy would be it for Joy once the reviews hit). Tomlin and Smith were extremely likely. McCarthy and Schumer came along with their films.
McCarthy I’m more than cool with. She was great. Schumer…eh. Can’t get excited over that. There were better options.
Actually not sure at all who wins. I would say Lawrence in a landslide, but given Joy’s iffy reception, I’m calling this one an open race. I’ll guess Lily Tomlin. Because why not?
Supporting Actor – Motion Picture:
- Paul Dano, Love & Mercy
- Idris Elba, Beasts of No Nation
- Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies
- Michael Shannon, 99 Homes
- Sylvester Stallone, Creed
Never thought I’d be that happy to see his name.
I think Tom Hardy’s chances for The Revenant are looking pretty grim. And no Jacob Tremblay, which is weird given the Picture nomination for Room.
Elba might just get an Oscar nomination yet. Which is fucking awesome.
Shannon still seems vulnerable because the film didn’t go over quite as big as expected (though I regret not seeing it), but Rylance and Stallone (the SAG snub aside) must be considered locks.
With Stallone in the running, I predict him to take it. Otherwise, I’d say Rylance, but Stallone has an awful lot going for him.
Supporting Actress – Motion Picture:
- Jane Fonda, Youth
- Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight
- Helen Mirren, Trumbo
- Alicia Vikander, Ex Machina
- Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs
AVA GOT AN OSCAR NOMINATION!!!!!!!!!!!! That, easily, is the pleasantest surprise of the day. She was amazing. And I’m so glad that film hasn’t been forgotten by the major groups.
As for the others…Fonda was likely to get on. I don’t really care. Leigh is back in the mix–good. Mirren gets another nod for that film? They must have campaigned her and the film to death. If she gets an Oscar nom, I’ll be well and truly flabbergasted.
And Winslet is still in the game. That’s cool.
Leigh is the frontrunner, but Vikander has a double nomination, which makes her a definite threat. And I wouldn’t rule out a surprise Fonda win.
Screenplay – Motion Picture:
- The Big Short
- The Hateful Eight
- Steve Jobs
They went with The Hateful Eight and Steve Jobs over Carol? Hmm.
I’m still amazed that The Big Short is an actual awards contender. I never in a million years would’ve guessed it.
Room is nice to see.
Spotlight will almost certainly win. If it doesn’t…I really don’t know who will.
Score – Motion Picture:
- The Danish Girl
- The Hateful Eight
- The Revenant
- Steve Jobs
You nominate Mad Max for Picture and Director but not Score?
I don’t even really remember the score from Steve Jobs. And I can’t imagine The Danish Girl really needs to be here. Or The Revenant.
Having not seen four of these films, I can’t really pass too much judgment on this category, but in the abstract…kind of boring. It was not a great year for scores, but It Follows, Black Mass, Bridge of Spies…there were (I would assume) better choices.
Song – Motion Picture:
- “Love Me Like You Do”, Fifty Shades of Grey
- “One Kind of Love”, Love & Mercy
- “See You Again”, Furious 7
- “Simple Song No. 3”, Youth
- “Writing’s On the Wall”, Spectre
I need to actually listen to those songs from Fifty Shades (dear God) and Love & Mercy. This was a bad year for songs, but those would both be eligible for my awards, so…
Curious as to what that song from Youth is.
I’ve softened a bit on “Writing’s On the Wall”–it’s a good song in of itself, I just don’t like Sam Smith’s rendition of it. A good cover could really blow you away.
In any case, “See You Again” appears to be the frontrunner.
- The Good Dinosaur
- Inside Out
- The Peanuts Movie
- Shaun the Sheep Movie
This is the Oscar category. Barring a major upset (probably at the expense of The Peanuts Movie).
Inside Out probably wins, though Anomalisa has to be considered a threat.
Foreign Language Film:
- The Brand New Testament
- The Club
- The Fencer
- Son of Saul
The Club sounds fascinating.
But Son of Saul is taking this. By a mile.
I won’t even bother with the TV nominations.
Not a bad line-up, given the year. I would’ve done a few things differently, at least on the Musical/Comedy side, but for the most part, I can live with this.
I forget what’s next. BAFTA? Maybe?
I’ve got reviews to catch up on. Maybe some more soda reviews.
Also, once Star Wars opens (I work at a movie theater), I’ll probably be pretty busy for a solid week or two. So the level of content might drop off just a tad.