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Predicting My 5th Annual Film Awards: Final Round

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Picture:

  • Anomalisa
  • Carol
  • The Forbidden Room
  • Hard to Be a God
  • The Hateful Eight
  • The Lobster
  • Mad Max Fury Road
  • A Pigeon Sat on a Branch Reflecting on Existence
  • The Revenant
  • Spotlight

Other Contenders (10 in this category, 5 in the rest, so if I miss anyone or anything, I’m sorry): Arabian Nights (if I see it in time), Bridge of Spies, Brooklyn, Concussion, Entertainment, High-Rise, In the Heart of the Sea, Room, Son of Saul, Tangerine

From what I’ve seen to date, Max is a dead lock for a nomination and Tangerine has a decent shot. Beyond that…I really don’t know. If the rest of the year disappoints, Bridge of Spies might sneak on, but much as I liked that film, it wouldn’t have cracked the top 10 last year. I’m a little concerned about The Hateful Eight just because the trailers haven’t totally sold me, but I’ll give Tarantino the benefit of the doubt.

Director:

  • Roy Andersson, A Pigeon Sat on a Branch Reflecting on Existence
  • Aleksey German, Hard to Be a God
  • Alejandro González Iñárritu, The Revenant
  • Guy Maddin & Evan Johnson, The Forbidden Room
  • George Miller, Mad Max Fury Road

Other Contenders: Yorgos Lanthimos, The Lobster, László Nemes, Son of Saul, Sebastian Schipper, Victoria, Steven Spielberg, Bridge of Spies, Quentin Tarantino, The Hateful Eight

As with Picture, Miller and Max are all but certain to get on. Beyond that, it’s pretty much open season. Maybe I’ll end up recognizing Spielberg’s best work in years?

Actor:

  • John Cusack & Paul Dano, Love & Mercy
  • Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant
  • Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs (or Macbeth)
  • Ian McKellen, Mr. Holmes
  • Will Smith, Concussion

Other Contenders: Abraham Attah, Beasts of No Nation, Johnny Depp, Black Mass, Colin Farrell, The Lobster, Géza Röhrig, Son of Saul, Peter Sarsgaard, Experimenter

Feels a bit weird to predict Smith given his track record of late, but from the trailer it looks like he’s doing a pretty damn good job. That, and this has been a surprisingly weak year for lead actors. I could even see Depp making my final 5.

Actress:

  • Care Blanchett, Carol
  • Brie Larson, Room
  • Charlotte Rampling, 45 Years
  • Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn
  • Alicia Vikander, Ex Machina (or The Danish Girl)

Other Contenders: Marion Cotillard, Macbeth (might be Supporting), Jennifer Lawrence, Joy, Julianne Moore, Maps to the Stars, Carey Mulligan, Suffragette, Charlize Theron, Mad Max Fury Road

Vikander is getting pushed Supporting by the studio, but unless she gets major traction in that category (and I have to assume she’ll be getting more notice for The Danish Girl), I’ll leave her in lead. If it weren’t for the fact that Rooney Mara will most likely be placed in Supporting, I’d put her here. This category is tough to predict because so far there have been a lot of very good performances here, but none that stand above the rest.

Supporting Actor:

  • Tom Hardy, The Revenant
  • Nicholas Hoult, Mad Max Fury Road
  • Oscar Isaac, Ex Machina
  • Michael Keaton, Spotlight
  • Jacob Tremblay, Room

Other Contenders: Idris Elba, Beasts of No Nation (might be Lead), David Morse, Concussion, Milo Parker, Mr. Holmes, Mark Ruffalo, Spotlight, Kurt Russell, The Hateful Eight*

*I really have no idea what do with this film. Since it’s an ensemble piece, it doesn’t seem like there’s a definite lead (though there’s a rumor that Samuel L. Jackson will be campaigned as one). I have a strong contender from it in the next category, but here and in lead Actor, I’m really not sure.

Supporting Actress:

  • Olivia Cooke, Me and Earl and the Dying Girl
  • Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight
  • Laura Linney, Mr. Holmes
  • Rooney Mara, Carol
  • Rachel Weisz, The Lobster (or Youth)

Other Contenders: Joan Allen, Room, Gugu Mbatha-Raw, Concussion, Rachel McAdams, Spotlight, Tessa Thompson, Creed, Julie Walters, Brooklyn

I feel like I’m missing someone. Or maybe it’s just not a good year for the category.

Original Screenplay:

  • The Forbidden Room*
  • The Hateful Eight
  • Inside Out
  • The Lobster
  • A Pigeon Sat on a Branch Reflecting on Existence

Other Contenders: Entertainment, Ex Machina, Son of Saul, Tangerine, Victoria

*Not sure if I should count this as Original or Adapted. Supposedly it draws on lost or never-made films of the silent and early sound eras, but that may not be sufficient grounds for adaptation.

Adapted Screenplay:

  • Anomalisa
  • Brooklyn
  • Carol
  • Hard to Be a God
  • Mr. Holmes

Other Contenders: Beasts of No Nation, Mad Max Fury Road*, The Martian, The Revenant, Room

*The studio is pushing this as an Original screenplay, but as it uses not only the character of Max but also draws sizably upon the earlier films, I consider it Adapted.

Factually-Based Screenplay:

  • Bridge of Spies
  • Concussion
  • In the Heart of the Sea
  • Spotlight
  • Steve Jobs

Other Contenders: N/A

My new category. Not all historically-based films are strictly Adapted, but it doesn’t feel right to consider them truly Original screenplays…so here they go. (The Revenant, while drawing on the real story of Hugh Glass, is technically based on a novelization of Glass’ story rather than a non-fiction account, and therefor I consider it Adapted.)

Cinematography:

  • The Forbidden Room
  • The Hateful Eight
  • In the Heart of the Sea
  • Mad Max Fury Road
  • The Revenant

Other Contenders: Entertainment, Hard to Be a God, Macbeth, A Pigeon Sat on a Branch Reflecting on Existence, Victoria

Editing:

  • Bridge of Spies
  • The Hateful Eight
  • In the Heart of the Sea
  • Mad Max Fury Road
  • The Revenant

Other Contenders: Creed, The Forbidden Room, The Lobster, A Pigeon Sat on a Branch Reflecting on Existence, Spotlight

Production Design:

  • Crimson Peak
  • The Forbidden Room
  • Hard to Be a God
  • Mad Max Fury Road
  • A Pigeon Sat on a Branch Reflecting on Existence

Other Contenders: Carol, The Hateful Eight, High-Rise, Star Wars: The Force Awakens, Suffragette

Costume Design:

  • Carol
  • Cinderella
  • Crimson Peak
  • The Danish Girl
  • The Hateful Eight

Other Contenders: Brooklyn, Hard to Be a God, In the Heart of the Sea, Macbeth, Suffragette

Makeup:

  • Black Mass
  • Hard to Be a God
  • The Hateful Eight
  • Mad Max Fury Road
  • The Revenant

Other Contenders: The Forbidden Room, In the Heart of the Sea, Macbeth, Son of Saul, Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Score:

  • The Hateful Eight
  • It Follows
  • Kumiko, the Treasure Hunter
  • Mad Max Fury Road
  • The Revenant

This is a very hard category to predict without having seen the films in question, especially since trailers aren’t always a reliable source for judging a film’s soundtrack.

Song:

This is such a bad year for original songs I’m not going to try and predict it. I will, however, share this song from The Forbidden Room which will probably contend just because I love Sparks so much:

Sound Mixing:

  • Everest
  • In the Heart of the Sea
  • Mad Max Fury Road
  • The Revenant
  • SPECTRE

Other Contenders: Hard to Be a God, The Hateful Eight, A Pigeon Sat on a Branch Reflecting on Existence, Star Wars: The Force Awakens, Victoria

Visual Effects:

  • In the Heart of the Sea
  • Mad Max Fury Road
  • The Martian
  • Star Wars: The Force Awakens
  • The Walk

Other Contenders: Everest, The Forbidden Room, Jurassic World, The Revenant, SPECTRE

Sound Effects:

  • Everest
  • In the Heart of the Sea
  • Mad Max Fury Road
  • The Revenant
  • SPECTRE

Other Contenders: Hard to Be a God, The Hateful Eight, A Pigeon Sat on a Branch Reflecting on Existence, Star Wars: The Force Awakens, Victoria

Same as Mixing. Because why not?

Estimated Nomination Totals:

  • 11 nominations: Mad Max Fury Road
  • 10 nominations: The Revenant
  • 8 nominations: The Hateful Eight
  • 6 nominations: In the Heart of the Sea
  • 5 nominations: Carol, The Forbidden Room*, Hard to Be a God
  • 4 nominations: A Pigeon Sat on a Branch Reflecting on Existence
  • 3 nominations: The Lobster, Mr. Holmes, Spotlight
  • 2 nominations: Anomalisa, Bridge of Spies, Brooklyn, Concussion, Crimson Peak, Everest, Ex Machina, Room, SPECTRE, Steve Jobs
  • 1 nomination: Black Mass, Cinderella, The Danish Girl, 45 Years, Inside Out, It Follows, Kumiko, the Treasure Hunter, Love & Mercy, The Martian, Me and Earl and the Dying Girl, Star Wars: The Force Awakens, The Walk

*6 if you include its likely Best Song nomination

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