If you want the gravy…

…You've got to get the biscuits!

Predicting My 5th Annual Film Awards: 1½ Round

1 Comment

I’m thinking I’ll do a full round of predictions in early November, when the state of the season is really starting to take shape, but here, based on what I’ve seen to date, advance word, and trailers, are some rough guesses at what I’ll drop on you come February:

Picture:

  • Arabian Nights
  • Carol
  • Entertainment
  • Hard to Be a God
  • The Hateful Eight
  • The Lobster
  • Mad Max: Fury Road
  • A Pigeon Sat on a Branch Reflecting on Existence
  • The Revenant
  • Victoria

11-20:

  • Brooklyn
  • The Diary of a Teenage Girl
  • Eden
  • Gangs of Wasseypur
  • In the Heart of the Sea
  • Macbeth
  • The Martian
  • Pawn Sacrifice
  • Room
  • Tangerine

No idea if I’ll actually get to see Arabian Nights in time, but it sounds utterly fascinating.

Director:

  • Roy Andersson, A Pigeon Sat on a Branch Reflecting on Existence
  • Aleksei German, Hard to Be a God
  • Alejandro G. Iñárritu, The Revenant
  • Yorgos Lanthimos, The Lobster
  • George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road

6-10:

  • Miguel Gomes, Arabian Nights
  • Justin Kurzel, Macbeth
  • Ridley Scott, The Martian
  • Sebastian Shippel, Victoria
  • Quentin Tarantino, The Hateful Eight

I really hope The Martian is good. I really hope Scott doesn’t fuck it up…again.

Actor:

  • Paul Dano/John Cusack, Love & Mercy
  • Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant
  • Michael Fassbender, Macbeth (or Steve Jobs)
  • Tom Hardy, Legend
  • Tobey Maguire, Pawn Sacrifice

6-10:

  • Bryan Cranston, Trumbo
  • Matt Damon, The Martian
  • Colin Farrell, The Lobster
  • Ian McKellen, Mr. Holmes
  • Peter Sarsgaard, Experimenter

Having seen the trailer for Legend, I’m a bit less bullish on Hardy, but this looks like it won’t be a banner year for leading men.

Actress:

  • Cate Blanchett, Carol
  • Marion Cotillard, Macbeth
  • Brie Larson, Room
  • Bel Powley, The Diary of a Teenage Girl
  • Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn

6-10:

  • Emily Blunt, Sicario
  • Laia Costa, Victoria
  • Elisabeth Moss, Queen of Earth
  • Charlotte Rampling, 45 Years
  • Alicia Vikander, Ex Machina

Much better. Maybe Cotillard won’t get on (since Lady Macbeth is really closer to a supporting role, at least in terms of stage/screen time), but this is still a very strong list.

Supporting Actor:

  • Benicio Del Toro, Sicario
  • Tom Hardy, The Revenant
  • Oscar Isaac, Ex Machina
  • John C. Reilly, The Lobster
  • Seth Rogen, Steve Jobs

6-10:

  • Nicholas Hoult, Mad Max: Fury Road
  • Cilian Murphy, In the Heart of the Sea
  • Kurt Russell, The Hateful Eight
  • Liev Schreiber, Pawn Sacrifice
  • Christoph Waltz, SPECTRE

Totally guessing here. Supporting categories are tough to call as it is, but this looks like a fairly limp year for this category as well.

Supporting Actress:

  • Olivia Cooke, Me and Earl and the Dying Girl
  • Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight
  • Rooney Mara, Carol
  • Helen Mirren, Trumbo
  • Kristen Wiig, The Diary of a Teenage Girl

6-10:

  • Jane Brennan, Brooklyn
  • Jessica Chastain, Crimson Peak (or The Martian)
  • Gugu Mbatha-Raw, Concussion
  • Winona Ryder, Experimenter
  • Katherine Waterston, Steve Jobs

Let’s just gamble on and see where it takes us.

For the remaining categories I’ll just predict 5 films and list additional contenders in the notes.

Original Screenplay:

  • Entertainment
  • The Hateful Eight
  • Inside Out
  • The Lobster
  • A Pigeon Sat on a Branch Reflecting on Existence

It’s not always clear what counts as Original and what counts as Adapted–historical films and biopics are a particularly gray area–so this list might be a bit different when all is said and done. Though Tarantino, Lanthimos, and Andersson seem safe bets.

Adapted Screenplay:

  • Arabian Nights
  • Carol
  • The Diary of a Teenage Girl
  • Hard to Be a God
  • The Revenant

Also potential contenders: Brooklyn, The Good Dinosaur, Mad Max: Fury Road, The Martian, Mr. Holmes, and Room.

Cinematography:

  • Hard to Be a God
  • The Hateful Eight
  • Mad Max: Fury Road
  • The Revenant
  • Victoria

What a list. In the Heart of the Sea and Sicario (Deakins!) are also worth considering.

Editing:

  • In the Heart of the Sea
  • Mad Max: Fury Road
  • The Martian
  • The Revenant
  • Sicario

Kind of spitballing with this one. Max is a lock unless this year is just unfathomably good, but the rest are a bit of a crapshoot.

Production Design:

  • Carol
  • Hard to Be a God
  • The Hateful Eight
  • The Martian
  • A Pigeon Sat on a Branch Reflecting on Existence

If Pigeon is on a par with its predecessors, it’ll win by a mile.

Costume Design:

  • Carol
  • Cinderella
  • Hard to Be a God
  • In the Heart of the Sea
  • Macbeth

The 70s fashions of The Diary of a Teenage Girl might also get a mention.

Makeup:

  • The Hateful Eight
  • In the Heart of the Sea
  • Mad Max: Fury Road
  • The Martian
  • The Revenant

Maybe The Martian is an iffy choice, but otherwise, it’s a hell of a list.

I’ll stop there for now. Score, Song, Visual Effects and the Sound categories are very difficult to predict, so I’ll save them for my full Second Round in November.

Advertisements

One thought on “Predicting My 5th Annual Film Awards: 1½ Round

  1. Pingback: Movie Journal 8/31/2015 | If you want the gravy...

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s