Let’s see how I did.
Picture – Drama: Boyhood
I predicted: Boyhood
I had hoped for a Selma upset, but we knew this was going to happen. This puts it on track to walk off with the Oscar.
Also, I just love how Meryl was like, “Yeah, yeah, let’s get this over with” when she announced it. Because…really.
Picture – Musical/Comedy: The Grand Budapest Hotel
I predicted: Birdman
What the fuck?
Seriously, what the fuck?
You saw both movies. Can you really watch both of those films and tell me Birdman wasn’t better?
If this had won Screenplay, it would have made sense. Sort of. This just looks weird.
I don’t mind that this’ll be up for Best Picture, but it really should not win. At all.
Director: Richard Linklater, Boyhood
I predicted: Richard Linklater, Boyhood
Can I just say, watching him speak, I think he’s secretly Owen Wilson or Owen and Luke’s missing fourth brother?
I’m okay with him winning because of the career he’s had, but Bernie was a better film in every way.
Actor – Drama: Eddie Redmayne, The Theory of Everything
I predicted: Benedict Cumberbatch, The Imitation Game
I’m actually okay with this. Redmayne was in the weaker film (though neither is that great), but I thought his was the better performance. So even though I was rooting for Gyllenhaal and Oyelowo, this is an acceptable result.
Maybe the wave of Cumberbatchmania is cresting?
Actress – Drama: Julianne Moore, Still Alice
I predicted: Julianne Moore, Still Alice
She’ll get the Oscar, she’ll have earned it, we’ll forget everything else about the film, the end.
I have to wonder if they’ll give this some bullshit nominations to make it look less like an Oscar vehicle for her? Maybe a random Screenplay nomination?
Oh, and I’m thinking Aniston is out of the Oscar race.
Actor – Musical/Comedy: Michael Keaton, Birdman
I predicted: Michael Keaton, Birdman
So happy about this. I knew it would happen, but that didn’t make it any less satisfying (and what a touching speech. Really, that was wonderful). Now if he can just win the Oscar.
Actress – Musical/Comedy: Amy Adams, Big Eyes
I predicted: Emily Blunt, Into the Woods
A little surprised, but I had her as a “Might Win”, so it’s not that shocking. More I just didn’t think her performance was all that award-worthy. But between this and the BAFTA nom, she might well be up for the Oscar (though I wouldn’t be shocked if she weren’t).
Supporting Actor: J.K. Simmons, Whiplash
I predicted: J.K. Simmons, Whiplash
If he doesn’t win the Oscar, it’ll be one of the bigger upsets of the year. That’s all I really have to say at this point.
Supporting Actress: Patricia Arquette, Boyhood
I predicted: Patricia Arquette, Boyhood
I’ll be glad when I don’t have to talk about that movie anymore.
I predicted: The Grand Budapest Hotel
See, if you just swap this and the Picture – Musical/Comedy result, it makes sense. This winning here and for Keaton but NOT for Picture just looks weird. But I’m okay with this because it was the better script.
And I’d like to have seen what that writing process was like. They seem like fun guys.
Score: The Theory of Everything
I predicted: Birdman
This was an out-and-out shock. And I didn’t think the score was that outstanding (though I’m giving it another listen as we speak–it’s a better score than I was giving it credit for), so aside from Jóhansson getting some recognition (after being passed over for Prisoners last year), it feels like a blah choice to me.
I just hope it doesn’t win the Oscar.
Song: “Glory”, Selma
I predicted: “Yellow Flicker Beat”, The Hunger Games: Mockingjay – Part I
A surprise (though I had it as a “Might Win”), but a very welcome one. It’s a good song, Common and John Legend are awesome (and Common’s speech was incredible), and it gave the movie some recognition. So I’m all for this.
Animated Feature: How to Train Your Dragon 2
I predicted: The Lego Movie
Was it just me, or was everyone palpably shocked that this won?
Because…what the hell? I didn’t see it, so I’m not knocking it based on quality, but…what was up with this?
Were they just trying to fuck with The Lego Movie‘s hegemony? A noble aim, but…I feel like this was the blandest choice they could have made. The Book of Life or The Boxtrolls would’ve been far more interesting picks.
This just feels contrarian.
Foreign Language Film: Leviathan
I predicted: Ida
I was off on this one. But I’m delighted that I was.
I want to see this movie so bad. I hope to God Sony Pictures Classics releases it wider sooner so I can see it before the Oscars. I loved Force Majeure and liked Ida (though I’ve cooled on it a bit), but this just looks epic. So excited for it.
So, to tally things up:
Out of 14 categories, I predicted 6 (Picture – Drama, Director, Actress – Drama, Actor – Musical/Comedy, Supporting Actor, and Supporting Actress) correctly.
Of the remaining 8, I listed the winners of 6 as a “Might Win”: Picture – Musical/Comedy, Actor – Drama, Actress – Musical/Comedy, Screenplay, Song, and Foreign Film (for the latter two, they were my second alternates).
Only Score and Animated Feature were outright shocks to me. Score maybe shouldn’t have been, since it’s been nominated pretty frequently this year, but Animated Feature was a definite shock. The NBR also went with Dragon, but they’d put Lego Movie in their Top 10 and given it Original Screenplay, so it makes more sense.
So, giving myself a full point for a correct prediction, a ½ point for a “Might Win”, and a ¼ point if it was a second alternate…I get 9½ out of 14. That’s 67.86%, which is a D+ by most metrics, or a low *** on my own scale.
Let’s see if I can’t do better on February 22.