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Final Golden Globes Predictions

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Is it in trouble? Or is this just a hiccup on the road to the Oscars? (Source)

A hell of a movie. But can it beat the Boyhood juggernaut?

Tonight’s results might not determine the outcome of the Oscars, but you can’t ignore them either. And I fancy I’ve got a pretty good idea of what we’ll see tonight. So let’s delve right in.

Motion Picture – Drama:

  • Boyhood
  • Foxcatcher
  • The Imitation Game
  • Selma
  • The Theory of Everything

Annoyed that Foxcatcher isn’t coming out for another week, because there’s a decent chance it’d be my pick. Selma is excellent, though, and I’d be totally okay with it winning.

Boyhood has been the darling of the year, and it’s easily the frontrunner here (my own issues with it aside). The Imitation Game might pull it off, but I’d be surprised. Theory has no shot, however, and sadly, I doubt Foxcatcher does either. Selma could pull off a last-minute win, but this is Boyhood‘s to lose.

Will Win: Boyhood
Might Win: Selma
Should Win: Selma, Foxcatcher
Should Be Here: Interstellar, Gone Girl, Nightcrawler

The nomination is the reward. (Source)

The nomination is the reward. (Source)

Motion Picture – Comedy/Musical:

  • Birdman
  • The Grand Budapest Hotel
  • Into the Woods
  • Pride
  • St. Vincent

This is a solid little category. Not as good as last year’s (Her, Nebraska, AND Wolf of Wall Street!), but I like all of these films. Pride is kind of the odd one out, since it doesn’t have any other nominations, but I really liked it. And my initial doubts about Into the Woods and St. Vincent were largely dispelled by the films themselves–I’d still rather see Inherent Vice and Dear White People here (and am not sure why Vice wasn’t nominated), but why kvetch?

In any case, this race comes down to Birdman and Budapest. Either stands a good chance of winning, but I think Birdman, which has the most nominations (7) of the year, will take this, with GBH getting its reward elsewhere.

Will Win: Birdman
Might Win: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Should Win: Birdman
Should Be Here: Dear White People, Inherent Vice 

Ava DuVernay, orchestrating history. (Source)

Ava DuVernay, orchestrating history. (Source)

Director – Motion Picture:

  • Wes Anderson, The Grand Budapest Hotel
  • Ava DuVernay, Selma
  • David Fincher, Gone Girl
  • Alejandro González Iñárritu, Birdman
  • Richard Linklater, Boyhood

This is a great category, and you could make a case for pretty much everyone. Anderson–overdue, distinctive craftsman, very good job on the film itself. DuVernay–first woman of color to ever be nominated, a passionate effort, very classy direction. Fincher–the man makes some of the best thrillers out there, and this a vintage effort (why it wasn’t nominated for Picture – Drama is beyond me). Iñárritu–has yet to win, delivered an extraordinary technical achievement and an amazing film. Linklater–has had an excellent career, and crafted this film over a 12 year period, with amazingly cohesive results.

My own vote would be Fincher, but Iñárritu is a close second and DuVernay would be a very worthy choice. I wouldn’t go for Anderson because I’ve never really embraced his style, and Linklater because I didn’t love the film (though I would be all right with him winning).

Linklater has the most momentum, Iñárritu the film with the most nominations. Linklater has the edge, but it’s a narrow one.

Will Win: Linklater
Might Win: Iñárritu
Should Win: Fincher, Iñárritu, DuVernay
Should Be Here: Christopher Nolan, Interstellar, Bennett Miller, Foxcatcher (assuming they got it right at Cannes)

Funnyman goes serious. It's worked before. Will it work this time? (Source)

Funnyman goes serious. It’s worked before. Will it work this time? (Source)

Actor – Drama:

  • Steve Carell, Foxcatcher
  • Benedict Cumberbatch, The Imitation Game
  • Jake Gyllenhaal, Nightcrawler
  • David Oyelowo, Selma
  • Eddie Redmayne, The Theory of Everything

Haven’t seen Carell, but that can’t be helped.

For my choice, I’m torn between Gyllenhaal and Oyelowo. Gyllenhaal was incredible, and incredibly scary, but Oyelowo, giving a much subtler performance, was extremely effective as well. I’d actually root for him to win over Gyllenhaal just because I’m not sure when he’ll get another shot at the award, but either one winning would be just dandy. (I’d be cool with Carell winning too, though it’s extremely unlikely.)

But it’ll probably be one of the Brits who takes this. Redmayne, for my money, was much better, since he had the huge physical challenge of playing Hawking from full motor capability to near-total paralysis (and did a fine acting job besides that), while Cumberbatch does a good job, but certainly not the best in the category.

And yet, because he’s so hot right now (and the film so acclaimed), he’s the frontrunner.

Will Win: Cumberbatch
Might Win: Redmayne, Oyelowo (call it a hunch)
Should Win: Gyllenhaal, Oyelowo
Should Be Here: Brendan Gleeson, Calvary, Tom Hardy, Locke

She may feel pressure to be the "cool girl", but damned if she isn't cool enough already. ()

#TeamAmazingAmy

Actress – Drama:

  • Jennifer Aniston, Cake
  • Felicity Jones, The Theory of Everything
  • Julianne Moore, Still Alice
  • Rosamund Pike, Gone Girl
  • Reese Witherspoon, Wild

Since I’m probably not going to see Wild before Sunday (mostly because I got so sick of that damn trailer…), I’m just going to tackle this category now.

Moore has been winning left and right for this film. She’s the favorite. The fact that Aniston got on at all, plus the fact that she’s a previous winner (for Friends), suggests she could be a surprise winner, but if anyone deserves to upset, it’s Pike. Jones and Witherspoon have been nominated all season long, but have won relatively little (relatively). Their chances are slim, and in the case of Jones, I don’t really see why she should even be here (Gugu Mbatha-Raw, people. That’s the period-piece performance you should be nominating.)

Will Win: Moore
Might Win: Pike, Aniston
Should Win: Pike
Should Be Here: Charlotte Gainsbourg, Nymphomaniac, Essie Davis, The Babadook, Gugu Mbatha-Raw, Belle

birdman liquor store

Comeback or not, it’s the performance of the year.

Actor – Comedy/Musical:

  • Ralph Fiennes, The Grand Budapest Hotel
  • Michael Keaton, Birdman
  • Bill Murray, St. Vincent
  • Joaquin Phoenix, Inherent Vice
  • Christoph Waltz, Big Eyes

Having seen all five performances, I still think Keaton deserves it. He gave the best performance, he’s in the best film (though I really liked Vice), and he has the perfect awards narrative.

Fiennes was good, but at the time I didn’t quite see what the fuss was all about (at least as an awards contender). Murray is really good, but the competition is too strong, plus he has one already (and really, he’s just doing his thing with a little seriousness poured on top). Phoenix is a lot of fun, but compared to his work in Her, it’s not a performance he should win for. And Waltz…he’s good, but he’s won twice already for much better work in much better films.

I’d just like to add that Chadwick Boseman not being here is ridiculous. That performance had this category written all over it, and had the studio actually mounted a campaign for him, he might’ve stood a chance at pulling off an upset. Idiots.

Will Win: Keaton
Might Win: Fiennes (with Murray an outside possibility)
Should Win: Keaton
Should Be Here: Chadwick Boseman, Get On Up

An awards-season veteran by age 11? That takes talent. (Source)

An awards-season veteran by age 11? That takes talent. (Source)

Actress – Comedy/Musical:

  • Amy Adams, Big Eyes
  • Emily Blunt, Into the Woods
  • Helen Mirren, The One Hundred Foot Journey
  • Julianne Moore, Maps to the Stars
  • Quvenzhané Wallis, Annie

Oy. I’ve only seen Adams’ and Blunt’s performances, and neither really stand out to me as winners. I’m sure Moore is great, but Maps isn’t even coming out here until the end of February. I’d be fine with Wallis winning, despite the weak reviews for the film, because she’s awesome and it would make her day (and seriously, this category is godawful). The Mirren nomination seems egregious; the film is apparently not that memorable, and someone needs to tell her that she isn’t Meryl Streep (she’s got a film coming this April where she does an Austrian accent, and not well).

As for who will win, Awards Circuit predicts Blunt, and since she’s in the only film to have a Picture nomination, I think she’s probably got the edge.

Will Win: Blunt
Might Win: Adams, Moore (especially if there’s an upset in the Actress – Drama category)
Should Win: Moore, Wallis

Should Be Here: Tessa Thompson, Dear White People

(Source)

Screaming his way to the top.

Supporting Actor – Motion Picture:

  • Robert Duvall, The Judge
  • Ethan Hawke, Boyhood
  • Edward Norton, Birdman
  • Mark Ruffalo, Foxcatcher
  • J.K. Simmons, Whiplash

I still haven’t seen Foxcatcher, but I won’t be able to until the 16th. This has been and continues to be a two-horse race: Simmons vs. Norton. Simmons is the favorite. Norton the threat. Hawke, the dark horse. Ruffalo, the long shot. Duvall, the veteran who somehow got nominated for a shitty movie. (If he gets nominated for an Oscar…)

And having seen Inherent Vice, I don’t know how you don’t nominate Josh Brolin.

Will Win: J.K. Simmons
Might Win: Edward Norton
Should Win: Edward Norton
Should Be Here: Josh Brolin, Inherent Vice, Noah Wiseman, The Babadook, Randall Park, The Interview

(Source)

Not this time, Meryl. But you were fun.

Supporting Actress – Motion Picture:

  • Patricia Arquette, Boyhood
  • Jessica Chastain, A Most Violent Year
  • Keira Knightley, The Imitation Game
  • Emma Stone, Birdman
  • Meryl Streep, Into the Woods

I don’t think Most Violent Year is going wide until the 30th, so I’ll have to predict this category without Chastain. Not that she’s a major threat to Arquette. Arquette has won pretty much everything. Stone is great and should win, while Knightley is good but not awards-good, and Streep is fun, but likewise: not award-worthy here.

Chastain, in terms of wins this season, is I think second to Arquette, so she’s probably the closest there is to a second contender.

Please, God, let the Supporting categories be more interesting next year.

Will Win: Patricia Arquette
Might Win: Jessica Chastain
Should Win: Emma Stone
Should Be Here: Tilda Swinton, Snowpiercer, Rene Russo, Nightcrawler

I've given him a lot of shit before. But here, he finds the role he was born to play. ()

It’s like he stepped off the page and onto the screen. Right down to the butt chin.

Screenplay – Motion Picture:

  • Birdman
  • Boyhood
  • Gone Girl
  • The Grand Budapest Hotel
  • The Imitation Game

Gone Girl should win–it’s the best script of the 5. Birdman would be a good winner as well (though I don’t totally love it), and it’s won heavily this season…but so has GBH. I’m not necessarily rooting for it, just because I’m not really an Anderson buff (I like his visuals more than his writing), but I think it has the edge here. Boyhood hasn’t really won in this category (nor should it have–Director is a better category for it), and The Imitation Game is a pretty standard biopic script–The King’s Speech, Mark II–which shouldn’t even have been nominated.

Will Win: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Might Win: Birdman
Should Win: Gone Girl
Should Be Here: Dear White People, Inherent Vice

Epic film, epic score.

Epic film, epic score.

Original Score – Motion Picture:

  • Birdman
  • Gone Girl
  • The Imitation Game
  • Interstellar
  • The Theory of Everything

3 incredible scores–Interstellar is a beautiful score (and thank God it wasn’t totally shut out), The Imitation Game is a marvelous score and far better than the film itself, and Gone Girl is typically awesome Reznor/Ross discordance–one good but overhyped score–that’s Birdman–and one score I didn’t get the fuss about at all (seriously).

Birdman has won a ton this year, and the chance to recognize a score deemed ineligible by the Academy (nice going, Oscars) won’t hurt its chances either. I think it wins this.

Will Win: Birdman
Might Win: The Imitation Game
Should Win: Interstellar/The Imitation Game (Desplat’s had a hell of a year)
Should Be Here: Under the Skin

Someone still gives a shit, apparently. (Source)

Someone still gives a shit about this film, apparently. (Source)

Original Song – Motion Picture:

  • “Big Eyes”, Big Eyes
  • “Glory”, Selma
  • “Mercy Is”, Noah
  • “Opportunity”, Annie
  • “Yellow Flicker Beat”, The Hunger Games: Mockingjay – Part I

I don’t really love any of these songs. “Glory” is well used in the film, though, so I’ll root for it. (“Big Eyes” isn’t even the best song from that film. What a shitty category.)

“Mercy Is” is Patti Smith, and “Yellow Flicker Beat” is Lorde. And of course, “Big Eyes” is Lana Del Rey, for what it’s worth.

I have no idea who’s going to win this. None at all. Someone somewhere suggested Patti Smith might win based on her stature (and her song, as I recall, was at least okay). But Lorde is a pretty big deal at the moment, and the film is (or will be) the highest-grossing of the year. So I think she might do it.

That said, nothing would surprise me here.

Will Win: “Yellow Flicker Beat”
Might Win: “Mercy Is”, “Glory” (because it’s from a Picture nominee)
Should Win: “Glory”
Should Be Here: “I Love You All”, Frank, “Everything is Awesome”, The Lego Movie

The poster is more distinctive than the film.

Awesome poster. Okay film.

Animated Film:

  • Big Hero 6
  • The Book of Life
  • The Boxtrolls
  • How to Train Your Dragon 2
  • The Lego Movie

I’ve only seen two of these. But one of those is The Lego Movie. And that’s going to win.

Will Win: The Lego Movie
Might Win: Big Hero 6
Should Win: The Lego Movie (probably)
Should Be Here: The Tale of the Princess Kaguya

()

Absurd people. Absurdly good movie.

Foreign Language Film:

  • Force Majeure
  • Gett: The Trial of Viviane Amsalem
  • Ida
  • Leviathan
  • Tangerines

Only seen two of these as well–annoyingly, Leviathan isn’t opening in my area till late February. But since Force Majeure and Ida have been the major players this season, I’m going to assume one of them pulls it off. Ida has the emotional edge, but Force Majeure is…fucking awesome. (So, I’m sure, is Leviathan, but it’s also apparently crushingly depressing.)

I’ll guess Ida, but this race is decently open. I doubt Gett and Tangerines have strong chances, but one never knows.

Will Win: Ida
Might Win: Force Majeure, Leviathan
Should Win: Force Majeure, 
(hopefully) Leviathan
Should Be Here: Wild Tales, Mommy, White God, etc.

And just to reiterate my predictions:

Picture – Drama: Boyhood

Picture – Musical/Comedy: Birdman

Director: Richard Linklater, Boyhood

Actor – Drama: Benedict Cumberbatch, The Imitation Game

Actress – Drama: Julianne Moore, Still Alice

Actor – Musical/Comedy: Michael Keaton, Birdman

Actress – Musical/Comedy: Emily Blunt, Into the Woods

Supporting Actor: J.K. Simmons, Whiplash

Supporting Actress: Patricia Arquette, Boyhood

Screenplay: The Grand Budapest Hotel

Original Score: Birdman

Song: “Yellow Flicker Beat”, The Hunger Games: Mockingjay – Part I

Animated Film: The Lego Movie

Foreign Film: Ida

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