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Predicting my 4th Annual Film Awards: First Round

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As we’re edging towards my 6-Month Film Awards, it’s a good time to start theorizing on what the end of the year will bring. So, based on what looks good, what’s gotten good festival buzz, and what I’ve already seen, here are the first predictions. Obviously, there’s a great deal of guesswork here (last year I had high hopes for The Counselor, and…yeah), but I always get a kick out of doing this.

Each category will have a Top 5 and a 6-10, except for Best Picture, which will have a Top 10 and an 11-20.

Best Picture

  • Birdman
  • Boyhood
  • Foxcatcher
  • Gone Girl
  • Inherent Vice
  • Leviathan
  • Maps to the Stars
  • Mommy
  • Nymphomaniac
  • A Pigeon Sat on a Branch Reflecting on Existence

11-20:

  • Big Eyes
  • The Dance of Reality
  • A Field in England
  • Ida
  • Interstellar
  • Mr. Turner
  • Norte, the End of History
  • Snowpiercer
  • Stand Clear of the Closing Doors
  • Winter Sleep

I’m not even sure when I’ll get to see Pigeon. So swap that one out for something else if you’re so inclined.

Best Director:

  • Paul Thomas Anderson, Inherent Vice
  • Roy Andersson, A Pigeon Sat on a Branch Reflecting on Existence
  • David Fincher, Gone Girl
  • Bennett Miller, Foxcatcher
  • Andrey Zvyagintsev, Leviathan

6-10:

  • Bong Joon-ho, Snowpiercer
  • David Cronenberg, Maps to the Stars
  • Xavier Dolan, Mommy
  • Alejandro Gonzalez Iñárritu, Birdman
  • Richard Linklater, Boyhood

Maybe I should’ve left von Trier on. But he’s got a better shot for Original Screenplay this year.

Best Actor:

  • Steve Carell, Foxcatcher
  • Michael Keaton, Birdman
  • Joaquin Phoenix, Inherent Vice
  • Stellan Skarsgård, Nymphomaniac
  • Timothy Spall, Mr. Turner

6-10:

  • Ellar Coltrane, Boyhood
  • Benedict Cumberbatch, The Imitation Game
  • Tom Hardy, Locke
  • James McAvoy, The Disappearance of Eleanor Rigby
  • Jesus Sanchez-Velez, Stand Clear of the Closing Doors

Not looking like a banner year for acting. This seems like it might be more of a director’s year.

Best Actress:

  • Amy Adams, Big Eyes
  • Jessica Chastain, The Disappearance of Eleanor Rigby
  • Charlotte Gainsbourg, Nymphomaniac
  • Julianne Moore, Maps to the Stars
  • Andrea Suarez Paz, Stand Clear of the Closing Doors

6-10:

  • Gugu Mbatha-Raw, Belle
  • Rosamund Pike, Gone Girl
  • Agata Trzebuchowska, Ida
  • Shailene Woodley, White Bird in a Blizzard
  • Robin Wright, The Congress

Actually one year where the Best Actress contenders seem more promising than the Best Actors.

Best Supporting Actor:

  • Jamie Bell, Nymphomaniac
  • Neil Patrick Harris, Gone Girl
  • Edward Norton, Birdman
  • Joaquin Phoenix, The Immigrant
  • Channing Tatum, Foxcatcher

6-10:

  • Josh Brolin, Inherent Vice
  • Ethan Hawke, Boyhood
  • Sid Lucero, Norte, the End of History
  • Roman Madyanov, Leviathan
  • Mark Ruffalo, Foxcatcher

These supporting categories are going to be total guesswork. It’s really hard to determine what will be standout supporting roles without at least a trailer.

Best Supporting Actress:

  • Sarah Gadon, Belle
  • Agata Kulesza, Ida
  • Vanessa Redgrave, Foxcatcher
  • Tilda Swinton, Snowpiercer
  • Uma Thurman, Nymphomaniac

6-10:

  • Patricia Arquette, Boyhood
  • Dorothy Atkinson, Mr. Turner
  • Angeli Bayani, Norte, the End of History (might be lead)
  • Mia Wasikowska, Maps to the Stars
  • Katherine Waterston, Inherent Vice

Who even knows.

Best Original Screenplay:

  • Birdman
  • Leviathan
  • Mommy
  • Nymphomaniac
  • A Pigeon Sat on a Branch Reflecting on Existence

6-10:

  • The Dance of Reality
  • Interstellar
  • Locke
  • Stand Clear of the Closing Doors
  • Winter Sleep

I’m not sure why I’m not more bullish on Winter Sleep. Maybe I just assume I won’t love it like I loved Once Upon a Time in Anatolia.

Best Adapted Screenplay:

  • Foxcatcher
  • Gone Girl
  • Inherent Vice
  • Maps to the Stars*
  • We Are the Best!

6-10:

  • The Congress
  • The Double
  • The Imitation Game
  • Snowpiercer
  • Unbroken

*Maps to the Stars has a weird pedigree. It was written as a script, then turned into a novel when the film didn’t get made, then turned back into a script. I’m not sure exactly where to put it. So I’ll put it here for now.

I’m not going to try to do tech categories. Not until the second or third round. And since there are roughly nine months to go until the awards, the second round will come at the end of September or the start of October, by which time a lot of trailers should have dropped and I should have a pretty good idea of what will be contending for Cinematography, Production Design, Costume Design, and possibly Editing and Original Score.

 

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3 thoughts on “Predicting my 4th Annual Film Awards: First Round

  1. Pingback: Predicting my 4th Annual Film Awards: Second Round | If you want the gravy...

  2. Pingback: Independent Spirit Awards Nominations | If you want the gravy...

  3. Pingback: My 4th Annual Film Awards: The Nominations | If you want the gravy...

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